By Ben Aris in Berlin
Currently, Rosatom controls approximately 70% of the world export market for the construction of nuclear power plants (NPPs). Emerging powers in the Global South are trying to boost their energy production and are turning to Moscow for NPPs and fuel.
Russia has become a major supplier of these nuclear energy-related technologies for countries in the Global South. Like Gazprom, the state-owned natural gas champion, before it, Moscow is now using Rosatom as a diplomatic tool to garner support and exercise control over Global south countries – what the literature calls “international clientelism”. And the results have been seen in the variousUN votes to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine where Russia has managed garner support and abstentions from its global south partners.
Rosatom has won numerous tenders for the sale of reactors, positioning itself as a leader in terms of the number of nuclear reactor construction projects executed simultaneously, with 3 units in Russia and 33 abroad in various phases of execution.
Likewise, it controls approximately 20% of the world market for conversion and enrichment-related materials – a business it dominates – making it an irreplaceable partner, including for Western powers.
There has been talk of banning imports of Russian nuclear fuel to Europe and the US, but in practice both remain heavily dependent on Russian nuclear fuel and are unable to cancel their imports – despite the rhetoric to cut off supplies.
Centrus, the largest nuclear energy company in the United States, recently announced its intention to petition relevant government agencies to exempt it from a newly proposed ban on Russian enriched uranium imports – the so-called yellow cake uranium. The company said that the ban on Russian uranium imports is unworkable.
The problem is that the US can enrich its own uranium, or anyone else’s. NPPs account for 29% of all power stations in the States, yet the country produces almost no fuel for them. Recently, the US reported that it had managed to produce 90 kg of enriched uranium for the first time, and by the end of the year, this figure is expected to reach one tonne per annum. However, that is still nearly 700 times less than what is currently imported from Russia.
A new law, approved by the Senate, calls for an immediate ban, but includes a system of waivers for anyone that wants them until 2027 if it serves the 'national interests' of the States. Likewise, Europe has no uranium nor refineries. Countries that do have raw uranium like Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, lack significant enriching capacity and rely on Russia to produce the yellow cake.
As NPP deals come with 60-year long fuel supply deals, uranium has become the new gas. Since 2023 Rosatom has been the exclusive supplier of products related to enriched uranium for Brazilian nuclear facilities. This historic agreement is the first long-term partnership with Brasilia, replacing previous imports from Canada and European consortia.
These deals come at a time when Rosatom is trying to expand its relations with the BRICS countries to increase its participation in the sale of nuclear subsidies for the production of radioisotopes in these nations and obtain financing from the New Development Bank (previously known as the BRICS bank).
Russia'snuclear exports are booming. One of the biggest new reactors was inaugurated on April 27, 2023, by Turkish President Erdoğan, the Russian built Akkuyu NPP, Turkey's first nuclear reactor.
It will begin operation in 2025 with four VVER 1200 pressurised water reactors and will be responsible for around 10% of the total national electricity production. Located in the southern Turkish province of Mersin, the nuclear power plant was also 93% financed by Rosatom.
In North Africa, a region facing rapid population growth and an insatiable hunger for power, Russia has initiated strategic dialogues with countries such as Morocco, Libya and Tunisia, which have signed MOUs with Rosatom.
Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa, such as Burkina Faso, Mali, Zimbabwe, Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya and Ethiopia, also have agreements related to nuclear energy with Rosatom. Russia seeks a diplomatic rapprochement with countries like Nigeria, based on cooperation in uranium exploration and the establishment of a nuclear power plant financed by Russian lines of credit. Moscow has pursued preferential access to the continent's uranium and rare earth mines, as seen in agreements with Tanzania and Namibia.
South Africa is also looking to Moscow as it has been suffering rolling blackouts for years. In 2023, Pretoria decided to boost nuclear energy production, with Rosatom help. However, plans for the creation of new nuclear power plants are facing serious resistance , due to corruption allegations surrounding a previous agreement.
Russia's nuclear diplomacy has also extended to South Asia.India has agreed to the construction of units 3, 4, 5 and 6 of the Kudankulam NPP that has rekindled an old partnership that dates back to the agreements with the Soviet Union.
Likewise, the Russian company operates in Bangladesh, with preparations underway for the construction of the Rooppur NPP, the country's first nuclear energy facility.
In Sri Lanka Russia is a potential candidate to build nuclear reactors as part of a recently published long-term project to boost local energy production in the country.
In Latin America Russia is seeking greater access to the continent's raw materials markets. Bolivia has signed off on a $450mn contract with Rosatom to the construction of a complex for the extraction and production of lithium carbonate, an essential material for the cooling and containment systems of nuclear reactors. Russia has also expanded nuclear collaboration with Brazil.
Russia's strategic use of nuclear alliances with countries in the Global South not only increases its global influence, but also raises challenges related to technology transfer and economic dependence. These partnerships often rely heavily on Russian technology and funding that bind the client states to Moscow.
