Georgia has entered a realm of uncertainty after MPs dismissed cautions from US and EU leaders, as well as ignored mass protests that clogged the streets around parliament, to adopt controversial “foreign agents” legislation on May 14.
The ruling Georgian Dream party claims that the law is a straightforward measure to promote transparency about funding sources for non-governmental organizations and independent media outlets. Critics say that the law can be manipulated to diminish scrutiny of officials’ actions and policies, as well as muzzle organizations critical of the government.
The measure now requires a presidential signature to enter force. President Salome Zourabichvili has vowed to veto the law, but Georgian Dream has a sufficient majority in parliament to override presidential opposition.
The law, which would require organizations receiving more than 20 percent of their funding from overseas to register as “foreign agents,” has sparked some of the biggest protests Georgia has seen in decades. As protesters failed to achieve their stated aim of pressuring the Georgian Dream coalition to withdraw the draft law – as it did in 2023 – the country now likely faces a period of mounting confrontation, with neither the government nor the youth-led opposition likely to backtrack as Georgia moves towards parliamentary elections in the fall.
“They don’t have much choice,” said Kornely Kakachia, director of the Georgian Institute of Politics, referring to Georgian Dream’s options at this stage. “Either they go for full consolidation of authoritarianism – which will not be easy in a country like Georgia, especially under international pressure and internal pressure – or they have to back off.”
Kakachia noted that the second option is unlikely given that Georgian Dream has lost “moral legitimacy” in the eyes of many Georgians, and to backtrack would likely mean the downfall of the party.
In recent days, EU representatives made unsuccessful attempts to negotiate with members of the Georgian government. Officials in Brussels have stopped short of saying that implementation of the foreign agents law will terminate Georgia’s EU candidacy, but officials have been clear that in passing it, Georgia’s government has crossed a red line.
“I don’t see any chance to open negotiation chapters with this law [in effect],” Michael Roth, chairman of the German Bundestag Foreign Affairs Committee, told reporters in Tbilisi on May 13.
Kakachia said that he expects Georgia’s Western partners to continue ramping up the pressure on Tbilisi in the coming weeks while the law is in limbo waiting for a parliamentary override of the president’s expected veto. One powerful lever at the West’s disposal is a rumored sanctions package aimed at Georgian Dream founder and current “honorary chairman” Bidzina Ivanishvili.
It might not be a long wait for news on potential sanctions to come down. At the same time that Georgia’s parliament was debating the legislation on May 14, current Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs and former Sanctions Coordinator for the US State Department James O’Brien was in Tbilisi to meet with Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze. O’Brien had previously requested to meet with Ivanishvili during his trip, local media reported, but Kobakhidze announced just a day before it was scheduled to take place that Ivanishvili had declined the meeting.
According to Kobakhidze, Ivanishvili saw meeting with O’Brien under the looming threat of sanctions as akin to “blackmail.”
For protesters in Tbilisi and elsewhere, there appears to be a very narrow path forward. Once the law goes into effect, numerous civil society organizations that have promised not to comply will likely come under pressure to cease operations. As the door closes on a legislative remedy to Georgia’s current crisis, Kakachia said it is important to look for signs of dissension in Georgian Dream’s ranks, such as the resignation of officials, which may show shakiness in the party’s hold on power in the country.
