The latest developments within Daniel Kretinsky’s sprawling business empire give some indication about his intentions with regards to a full West Ham takeover.
The multi-industry Czech billionaire bought a 27 per cent stake in the Hammers in November 2021 in a deal worth around £200m.
Documents filed with Companies House showed that the agreement included an option for a full takeover at a set price, believed to be approximately £600m.
But the 48-year-old is yet to trigger that clause and recently suggested that purchasing additional shares from David Sullivan and the estate of the late David Gold is not on his immediate to-do list.
And a series of recent events may indicate that although Kretinsky has a reputation for making unpredictable business moves, he does not plan on changing his West Ham stance any time soon.
Royal Mail and Atos takeovers: The latest Kretinsky news
In the last 24 hours, Reuters have reported that Kretinsky is considering altering his bid to buy struggling French IT firm Atos.
He has approached lenders with a view to convincing them of the merits of his bid in partnership with the British investment firm Attestor, it is claimed.
The offer would see the Kretinsky-led group invest £511m cash into Atos as well as erasing almost all of the company’s £4bn debt pile.
Significantly, the takeover attempt is taking place at exactly the same time that Kretinsky is trying to buy IDS, the parent company of Royal Mail, in a controversial £3.5bn deal.
This represents a significant U-turn for Kretinsky, who claimed last year that he has no ambitions to buy the British postal service in which he already owns a 27.6 per cent stake.
What Kretinsky U-turn tells us about possible West Ham buyout
From a West Ham perspective, there are two ways of analysing the latest developments from Kretinsky HQ.
On one hand, he is fighting on two fronts already and may be reluctant to launch another dramatic takeover bid for a football club, especially when there is growing scrutiny around takeovers in the Premier League given the coming introduction of the independent football regulator.
Atos holds significant contracts for the Olympics in Paris this year and is very much a distressed asset that would demand a lot attention to turn around.
Royal Mail meanwhile is a British institution. Purchasing and running a company of that nature would again be a huge drain on Kretinsky’s time, not to mention his financial resources.
Forbes estimates that Kretinsky’s net worth is £7.4bn. The Royal Mail and Atos acquisitions would be worth almost £8bn in total.
And while Kretinsky will use creditors’ cash rather than his own, those companies will need to become profitable in the long term in order to protect Kretinsky’s wealth. Again, not good news for the chances of a West Ham takeover.
However, just about the only thing that is predictable about Kretinsky is his unpredictability – it’s what earned him the nickname the ‘Czech Sphinx’ in the media.
The very fact that he has now gone full throttle with Royal Mail barely 12 months after he said he has no intention of increasing his stake means that his comments about a West Ham buyout being low down on his agenda should be taken with a lorry load of salt.
When could Kretinsky complete a West Ham takeover?
If Kretinsky is to exercise his option to take full control of West Ham, it will likely not be for some time.
In any case, investors tend to wait until a deal would have the least operational impact on the club before pulling the trigger on a takeover attempt.
With West Ham about to enter a period of transition following the departure of David Moyes, that time clearly is not this summer.
In theory, Kretinsky could press the button at any time given that the put and call agreement he has with the existing ownership is at a set price.
But the reality is always more complex. And with a number of seismic governance-level events imminent – the introduction of an independent football regulator and a new financial fair play system – now is not the ideal time for investors, who always value certainty around compliance and costs, to buy a Premier League club.