UK Defence Ministry on growth of the Ukrainian economy due to exports by Black Sea

Ukraine exported the largest volume of grain and oilseeds in April 2024 since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion, reaching 6.6 million tonnes. This indicates Kyiv's ability to unilaterally export products across the Black Sea.

Source: European Pravda; UK Defence Ministry review dated 22 May on Twitter, as reported by European Pravda

Details: The UK Defence Ministry notes that the capacity of the Black Sea ports "almost certainly" reached a monthly export volume exceeding any other indicator during the full-scale war, in particular those reached within the framework of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI).

Analysts point out that approximately 5.2 million tonnes of total grain and oilseed exports were sent in April this year from Ukraine's Black Sea ports, compared with the peak of 4.2 million tonnes under the grain agreement in October 2022.

The UK Ministry of Defence notes that the Ukrainian sea corridor has provided about 1,600 transits of vessels and the export of 45 million tonnes of cargo since its launch in August last year, where the majority was the export of agricultural products, more than 30 million tonnes within nine months.

"The remainder is primarily iron ore and steel products, which previously was unable to be exported by sea during the BSGI. Overall, this will support Ukraine's economic recovery in 2024," the review says.

The UK Defence Ministry notes that supplies from Ukraine are vital for global food security. Grain exports from Ukraine will account for about 9.7% of world exports from July 2023 to June 2024.

"While agricultural exports are almost certainly dependent on the Black Sea ports, representing around 78% in volume, other routes remain in use," the UK Defence Ministry notes.

The UK Defence Ministry adds that Ukraine continues to export grain and oilseeds across the Danube, which accounts for about 15% of volumes, by rail and road – about 6% and 1% of volumes, respectively.

In April, the media reported that Ukraine, Russia, and Türkiyeconducted two-month-long negotiations on the agreement on the safety of navigation in the Black Sea, which was supposed to be announced at the end of March.

Background:

  • After the full-scale invasion amid the naval blockade of Ukrainian Black Sea ports by Russia in July 2022, Türkiye and the UN helped to conclude the Black Sea Grain Initiative.
  • Under the agreement, Ukraine safely exported almost 33 million tonnes of Ukrainian grain by the Black Sea through the so-called grain corridor. Russia left the deal in July 2023, stating that its demands had never been met.
  • After that, the Turkish side advocated for restoring the grain corridor with Russia's participation, while Ukraine was able to establish its own route.

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