Polls in recent months have shown former President Donald Trump has a narrow but consistent edge over President Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential election.
However, New York Times polling analyst has flagged what he describes as "one big flashing warning sign" when it comes to Trump's current polling strength.
Specifically, he notes that Trump's lead in the polls is due to support from less engaged voters, which he describes as voters who sat out the 2022 midterm elections.
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"President Biden has actually led the last three Times/Siena national polls among those who voted in the 2020 election, even as he has trailed among registered voters overall," writes Cohn. "And looking back over the last few years, almost all of Mr. Trump’s gains have come from these less engaged voters."
Cohn contends that Biden cannot count on these voters moving back to him and he says that reaching these less engaged voters may be difficult because they don't get their information from traditional media sources such as newspapers and television news.
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However, Cohn also thinks that this make's Trump current edge in the polls shaky at best.
"While the race has been stable so far, Mr. Trump’s dependence on disengaged voters makes it easy to imagine how it could quickly become more volatile," he writes. "As voters tune in over the next six months, there’s a chance that disengaged but traditionally Democratic voters could revert to their usual partisan leanings. Alternately, many of these disaffected voters might ultimately stay home, which might help Mr. Biden."
He also notes that the current splits among less engaged voters make work difficult for pollsters.
"While millions of irregular voters will undoubtedly turn out this November, no one knows just how many of them will ultimately show up — let alone exactly which ones will do so," he writes. "This too is always a challenge for pollsters, but the deep divide between regular and irregular Democrats this cycle means that the polls may be unusually sensitive to the ultimate makeup of the electorate, with Mr. Biden potentially favored if enough of his disengaged defectors stay home."
