Former President Donald Trump's criminal trial in Manhattan could yield a verdict as soon as next week. And if he's found guilty by the jury, he could be the first former president in U.S. history to go to prison.
However, Judge Juan Merchan has the final say in the sentencing process. And because Trump's 34 charges are all class E felonies — the lowest class of felony in the state of New York — and because Trump would be a first-time offender, it's possible he could simply serve probation and pay a fine. But according to a recent Politico report, Merchan may not opt for leniency in the sentencing process given the former president's consistent violations of the gag order he imposed.
"Those are obviously aggravating factors, generically speaking, for someone to get a stiffer sentence," former Manhattan prosecutor and current criminal defense attorney Mark Bederow told Politico.
READ MORE: 'It has to stop': Prosecutors say Trump violated Merchan's gag order 7 times this week
Merchan put the gag order in place to prevent the former president from attacking witnesses, jurors, court staff and their families, notably after Trump repeatedly went after Merchan's daughter over her work as a consultant for Democratic candidates. Trump has been penalized 10 different times for violating the gag order with the maximum allowable fine of $1,000 per infraction, and Merchan has warned Trump that jailing him would not be out of the question for future violations.
The former president has since mostly held back in his attacks on groups protected by the gag order, though Politico noted he that two recent comments are a "test" of Merchan's warnings of jail time. But allies of the presumptive 2024 Republican presidential nominee have been attacking the people Trump has been unable to go after personally in remarks outside of the courthouse. Several prominent Trump surrogates, like House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) and Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Florida), have specifically named Merchan's daughter in comments to reporters.
"“Among the atrocities here, the judge's own daughter is making millions of dollars doing online fundraising for Democrats,” Johnson said earlier this month. “They're using this trial as a hook, it's so corrupt.”
Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Alabama), who has also traveled to Manhattan to defend Trump, effectively confirmed that "one of the reasons [Republicans] went" to the courthouse was specifically to assist the ex-president in circumventing the gag order.
READ MORE: 'One of the reasons we went': Tuberville admits bizarre reason for attending Trump trial
Merchan is scheduled to reconvene trial proceedings on Tuesday, after which both the prosecution and the defense will make their closing arguments to the jury. Politico senior legal correspondent Josh Gerstein said Friday that he believes the jury deliberations won't last longer than two or three days, and that a verdict is "very likely" by the end of next week.
"They're not physically cooped up but they've been stuck in that courtroom for long enough that I just don't see them wanting to drag this out," Gerstein said in an episode of PBS' Washington Week with The Atlantic. "There's also not, I think, a huge amount of factual dispute for them to sort of chew over. There are some issues of credibility to talk about, and there are a lot of legal issues to wrestle with, but it's not a question where they need to go through the evidence piece by piece."
Each one of Trump's 34 felony counts carries a maximum sentence of four years in prison, though there is a maximum total sentence of 20 years. Should Trump be found guilty, Merchan has the ability to make the sentences be served concurrently, meaning multiple convictions could all be served with one sentence.
Click here to read Politico's full report.
READ MORE: Trump attacks 'un-American' Judge Merchan and his daughter in response to gag order
