The last time a Republican won a U.S. Senate election in New Jersey, Donald Trump was 26 years old and still a decade from opening a casino in Atlantic City.
That was 1972.
Fifty-two years later, Republicans believe they have their best chance in a very long time to end the losing streak. They’re hoping the corruption charges against incumbent Sen. Robert Menendez, who isn’t seeking his party’s nomination, will sour voters on any Democratic challenger, or that Menendez might play spoiler by running as an independent.
And as with most things political these days, looming large over the June 4 primary for the Republican nod is Trump. Which has some in the GOP fearing he could be the kiss of death in blue New Jersey.
The former president — and presumptive Republican presidential nominee this fall — put it front and center as he held a campaign rally on the beach in Wildwood earlier this month. From the stage, he endorsed one of the two leading contenders in the Republican Senate primary, Mendham borough mayor and Trump fan Christine Serrano Glassner.
Among the thousands in the crowd that day was the other top candidate: South Jersey hotelier Curtis Bashaw, a resident of nearby Cape May who is considered a more moderate Republican and has the backing of a majority of powerful county parties in the state.
“She’s a fantastic woman,” Trump said of Serrano Glassner, whose support isn’t a surprise: Her husband is GOP operative Michael Glassner, who helped run Trump’s last two campaigns, and she was a New Jersey delegate to the 2016 Republican National Convention.
The ex-president then derisively called Bashaw a “Christie person.”
That’s former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Trump’s ex-adviser who is now his chief foe in the Republican Party. Bashaw has in the past donated to Christie, who ironically is a longtime resident of Mendham Township, located next door to the similarly named Morris County borough where Serrano Glassner is mayor.
Serrano Glassner said Trump’s endorsement is a “tremendous honor” and released a television ad touting it. She has openly embraced Trump stances, including his denial of the 2020 election results.
“Donald Trump is the strongest candidate we have,” Serrano Glassner, a 61-year-old second-term mayor, told NJ Advance Media. “That is why he’s the nominee. He needs the strongest Trump candidate working on his behalf for the people of New Jersey. My opponents are not.”
She has repeatedly accused Bashaw of previously being opposed to Trump and called him “chicken” for backing out of a recent debate, “just like he’s too chicken to back Trump.” She has given her opponent a Trumpian nickname, too: “Bacaw,” as in the sound a chicken makes.
Bashaw downplayed Trump’s endorsement, saying it’s not shocking because of Serrano Glassner’s ties to him. He said Serrano Glassner has no “real issues” to run on and the former president is “all she has talked about.”
But Bashaw has publicly endorsed Trump, too, after having no past record of backing him.
“I support President Trump in this cycle because I believe we need change,” Bashaw said. “We are fully behind the Republican ticket top to bottom.”
The 64-year-old developer, who specializes in restoring historic properties, has donated money to candidates from both parties and focused much his campaign oncriticizing Biden and arguing Congress needs new blood.
“I think we need more outsiders and business people in Washington,” Bashaw — pronounced BASH-aw — told NJ Advance Media. “I have a nice life. I’ve built a successful enterprise. … I just felt there was a real opportunity in this moment to do some good.”
Former Tabernacle Deputy Mayor Justin Murphy and Navy veteran Albert Harshaw are running in the Republican primary, as well.
Not surprisingly, most of the attention so far in the battle for Menendez’s seat has been on the Democratic primary, with U.S. Rep. Andy Kim the frontrunner for the party’s nom after First Lady Tammy Murphy dropped out following an intense intra-party war. Labor leader Patricia Campos-Medina and civil rights activist Lawrence Hamm are also running.
But Trump’s endorsement “shakes up” the Republican primary, said Micah Rasmussen, director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University. He noted it “appears to have been timed for maximum advantage in Bashaw’s backyard“ and “breathes significant new life” into Serrano Glassner’s campaign.
This focus on Trump also underscores a conundrum in blue states for a divided Republican Party: Candidates need to court Trump-supporting base voters who cast the majority of ballots in primaries, even as that runs the risk of alienating independent or left-leaning voters in the general election.
The former president, who is in a rematch with President Joe Biden for the White House, has twice lost by double digits in New Jersey, where registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by 1 million and polls show he remains broadly unpopular.
Rasmussen called this a “pay-now-or-pay-later proposition.”
“Doubling down on Trump is how Serrano Glassner and Bashaw demonstrate loyalty and common identity with a few hundred thousand GOP primary voters, and right now, that is the task at hand,” he said.
”But the task and the electorate change as soon as the primary is over, and the same positioning that played well with highly committed Republicans is not the same as what will work with New Jersey’s larger, bluer general electorate.“
Just two years ago in Pennsylvania, Trump’s hand-picked Senate candidate, Mehmet Oz, won a tough GOP primary before losing the election to Democrat John Fetterman. Many in the party blamed Trump for backing the wrong Republican.
In 2018, the last time Menendez’s seat was on the ballot, Republican nominee Bob Hugin, a wealthy pharmaceutical executive, walked a fine line on Trump. He still lost to Menendez by about 11 points despite spending $36 million of his own money. Trump claimed Hugin’s lack of support cost him the race. But that’s doubtful as New Jersey Democrats also scored huge victories in House elections in a mid-term backlash against Trump.
“While the focus on Trump is prime political discourse and strategy nationally these days, aligning strongly with Trump has yet to be proven a winning strategy at the state level in New Jersey,” said Ashley Koning, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University.
Koning said leaning into Trump is a “risky strategy for a statewide seat that has been held by a Democrat for decades and when neither candidate is widely known to New Jersey voters.” Polls show both Serrano Glassner and Bashaw have low name ID.
Serrano Glassner said she’s not worried about a Trump factor, citing the effect of the economy.
“People are not going to vote the way they normally do,” she said. “They’re looking out for their own future.”
Serrano Glassner grew up in Mendham and once worked as a chef before moving into politics. She left New Jersey to become a senior vice president of economic development for the state of New York and was appointed regional advocate for the Small Business Administration. She and her husband moved back to Jersey, started their own consulting business, and Serrano Glassner later became Mendham’s first female mayor.
She said she is running for Senate to restore “integrity” to the seat, noting people are “looking for someone that really has their back.”
Serrano Glassner faced scrutiny earlier this year when she said she would not have voted to certify Biden’s 2020 victory over Trump because “there were too many questions” and “a lot of stuff going on” — echoing Trump’s unfounded claims that the race was stolen from him because of voter fraud.
Bashaw grew up in Haddonfield and Cherry Hill and spent summers in Cape May. His grandfather, Carl McIntire, was a right-wing radio preacher who had his license taken away by the FCC and then rented a boat to broadcast from international waters.
“I was 13 years old on this boat, standing there kind of in awe of this guy defending his freedom,” Bashaw recalled.
After starting his development business, Bashaw gained attention for restoring Cape May’s historic Congress Hall, a resort his grandfather once owned. He has never held elected office but served as executive director of the New Jersey Casino Reinvestment Development Authority under Democratic Gov. Jim McGreevey.
Bashaw is openly gay and said he is “exhausted by people putting everybody into boxes.”
“I’ve always been Curtis Bashaw,” he said. “I’m a lifelong Republican. I love farming and gardening. I have a husband. That’s me. I think one of the really positive things about our campaign is we are going to expand the Republican tent.”
The two candidates have similar stances on big issues. They both support giving aid to Israel amid the war in Gaza, restoring the SALT cap, and clamping down on undocumented immigration at the U.S.’s southern border.
Bashaw has one big advantage: the coveted party endorsement in 14 of the state’s 21 counties. Though a judge eliminated the state’s controversial “county line” design — in which candidates backed by party leaders are given preferential placement on the primary ballot — in the Democratic primary, he left it intact for the Republican primary. He also leads Serrano Glassner in fundraising: $1.1 million to $400,000, according to the most recent numbers.
Polls have found Kim holds advantages over both Serrano Glassner and Bashaw in possible November matchups, even with the Menendez controversy.
But Menendez has also said he may run as an independent if he is exonerated, which could siphon votes away from Democrats.
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Brent Johnson may be reached at bjohnson@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on X at @johnsb01.
