Just like that, all will be quiet at Duane Banks Field next week.
The Iowa Baseball team entered the season ranked in the top 25 by multiple media outlets and had aspirations of not only winning the Big Ten, but potentially hosting an NCAA Tournament Regional. The 54 game season raced by and last Thursday, the Hawkeyes watched their season come to a close with a loss to Illinois at the Big Ten Tournament. A mix of inconsistency on the mound, injuries and bad luck led the demise of the Hawkeyes season.
Instead of discussing the upcoming NCAA Tournament, Iowa is looking to turn the page to next season. HawkeyeReport takes a look at the top questions surrounding the Hawkeyes heading into the offseason.
1. How do the Hawkeyes fare with big decisions ahead for Cade Obermueller, Sam Petersen and Raider Tello?
These are three biggest decisions surrounding the Hawkeyes going into the offseason. How many will return to Iowa City for another season? There are already several departures hitting the team, including Kyle Huckstorf, Michael Seegers and Cade Moss, as well as likely departures from Brody Brecht and Marcus Morgan. Keeping a couple of these guys around will be key for Rick Heller going into next season.
Cade Obermueller is a draft eligible sophomore and will have a decision to make after posting a 3.92 ERA in 13 starts for the Hawkeyes this season. He appeared in 15 games as a true freshman and showed marked improvement as a sophomore. Obermueller struck out 73 over 59.2 innings and allowed just 39 hits, but gave up 57 free bases. The talent is undeniable with Cade, but it feels like he needs another year at Iowa before going into the draft. If he returns, he would be the Friday arm in the rotation.
As for Sam Petersen and Raider Tello, their decisions will have a huge impact on the outlook of the offense going into next year. Petersen came into the year with Big Ten POY aspirations, but had a lower leg injury for much of the season and missed 21 games. His numbers in 33 games were solid, batting .333, with a .459 on-base percentage, including 11 doubles, five home runs and 17 stolen bases. It will be interesting to see how MLB organizations evaluate him coming off of an injury plagued season.
Raider Tello was the top hitter for the Hawkeyes batting .357, with a .434 on-base percentage, including 19 doubles, four triples, seven home runs and 60 RBI’s. Tello reached base in 50 of 54 games this season and was an impressive defender at third base. If he returns for his final year of eligibility, he would be one of the undoubted leaders of the team.
2. How does Rick Heller address the pitching staff struggles?
With the departure of pitching coach Sean McGrath after two seasons with the program, Rick Heller will be bringing in a new name to his coaching staff. The Hawkeyes have ranked highly in strikeouts and hits allowed per inning over the last two seasons, so missing bats and getting weak contact has not been an issue. The new pitching coach will be looking to get consistency out of the Iowa pitching staff.
Coming into the season, the pitching staff was expected to be the strength of the team for the Hawkeyes. Unfortunately, it did not play out that way, as the staff ranked 123rd in ERA, 267th in walks per nine innings and 134th in WHIP. Now, their top starting pitcher, Brody Brecht, is set to head off to the MLB Draft. Talent is not a question when it comes to the Iowa pitching staff. On the flip side, they ranked 5th in strikeouts per nine innings and 13th in hits allowed per nine innings.
There is not a set answer for how Rick Heller should address this issue, but it’s an area that has to get better if Iowa is going to return to the NCAA Tournament. There is a chance that 13 of the 16 pitchers that appeared in at least ten games this past season will return. That means that there will be plenty of experience returning, but that experience must translate into improved numbers next season.
3. Who are the early leaders for the 2025 starting rotation?
With Brody Brecht and Marcus Morgan likely headed to the draft, Rick Heller will have to replace at least two of his three weekend starters. If Cade Obermueller opts to return for another season, he will have the opportunity to be the Friday ace for the Hawkeyes.
After Obermueller, Anthony Watts and Aaron Savary figure to get the first chance to land in the final two spots in the rotation. After transferring in from Creighton, Watts appeared in 20 games with three starts, posting a 3.46 ERA over 41.2 innings. He improved his hits allowed per inning (0.71) and strikeouts per nine innings (11.5) from his freshman year. The next step for him is cutting down on free bases (0.82 per inning), but he has all of the tools to be a weekend starter next season.
Aaron Savary has been an underrated arm for the Hawkeyes through his first two seasons and should absolutely be considered for a weekend role next season. This season he appeared in 18 games, with two starts, posting a 4.19 ERA over 38.2 innings. Savary racked up 40 strikeouts to 17 walks and allowed 0.91 hits per inning. After back-to-back solid seasons as a reliever, the next step for Aaron is to be a starter.
As it currently stands, the Hawkeyes could have a solid starting rotation next season. It’s fair to assume that their will be some hesitancy from the fanbase to believe in the starting rotation after an underwhelming year this season. That being said, if Cade Obermueller returns, the starting rotation could be manned by three juniors. If they are able to take the next step in their progression as a pitcher, there is good reason to be optimistic.
4. What does Rick Heller opt to do in the transfer portal?
This will be a very interesting situation to follow. The Hawkeyes will already be bringing in a full freshman class, plus INF Andrew Holub (Wake Tech CC), INF Caleb Wulf (Southeastern CC), OF Miles Risley (Kirkwood CC) and RHP Wagner Morrissette (Gaston College) from the portal. That could limit what Rick Heller can do going forward in the portal.
If it turns out that the coaching staff is able to add another player or two from the portal, a power bat or a proven shutdown bullpen arm are the biggest needs. Sure, injuries played a part, but the Hawkeyes ranked 179th in home runs (54) and were one of three teams in the Big Ten without a double digit home run hitter. Meanwhile, eight Big Ten teams had multiple players with double digit long balls. On the bullpen side of things, they are set to return most of their main arms, but with Savary and Watts potentially moving the starting rotation, Jack Young is the only one in the bullpen returning with under a 4.50 ERA.
Once decisions with the current roster are completed, the coaching staff will be able to evaluate if they are able to add anyone else from the transfer portal.
5. Does incoming freshman pitcher Joey Oakie head to the MLB Draft?
This is arguably the most impactful decision for the Hawkeyes this offseason, as it will have ramifications beyond next season. A senior at Ankeny Centennial High School, pitcher Joey Oakie is rated as the the #5 righthanded pitcher in the country and the #28 overall prospect in the class of ’24 by Perfect Game. That is two spots higher than Brody Brecht who came in at #30 in the class of ’21.
With that high of a ranking comes the possibility of losing him to the MLB Draft. MLB.com rates Oakie as the #34 overall prospect, which would put him as a late first round or competitive balance round A pick. The signing bonus that comes with being picked in the 30-40 range is anywhere from $2.33 million to $2.97 million. That will be tough to pass up if you are Oakie, but a source told HawkeyeReport that he is going to wait to make a decision and let the draft play out. If the Hawkeyes are able to get him to campus, he would be the highest rated recruit in the Perfect Game era to play at Iowa.
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