By Bill Esdaile
ONCE AGAIN we were second guessing the weather last week, and while the predicted rain arrived at Haydock, none of our fancies showed up on the ground.
We live and learn, and we’ll have to do so quickly, as attention turns to Saturday’s Derby (4.30pm).
It looks like one of the hardest renewals to decipher in quite some time, partly due to the deluge of rain Epsom has experienced in the past week.
The track has had around 20 millimetres in the last seven days and there is even more rain forecast this week.
A soft ground Derby is surely not what City Of Troy, the current 3/1 favourite, will want.
He did win the Dewhurst on soft ground as a two-year-old, but his trainer, Aidan O’Brien, believed he hated the ground that day, and his Guineas blowout since hardly fills me with confidence to back him here.
It’s eye-catching that his stablemate, Los Angeles, has been popular with punters in recent days.
While he’s proven on easy ground, I think he is a touch slow even for a soft ground Derby, and his current price of 7/2 is too short.
ANCIENT WISDOM is also a horse who is bound to appreciate cut in the ground and has seen his price tumble too.
This horse was a Group One winner as a two-year-old, crucially on heavy going up at Doncaster, and has always looked like he’d appreciate this mile-and-a-half trip.
This was evidenced further by a somewhat disappointing run when beaten favourite in the Dante on his last start, but that was on good ground over 10-and-a-half furlongs, and he might just be ready to show his best with cut in the going over further.
I would worry about the chances of Ambiente Friendly, who was oh so impressive in the Lingfield Derby Trial, on softer going, and the next in the market, Dancing Gemini, would be a doubtful stayer in my book.
DEIRA MILE is a horse I like at a bigger price, currently trading at around 25/1.
He took a while to get going as a juvenile but ran with great credit when stepped up into Group One company behind Ancient Wisdom in the Futurity.
His reappearance run at Windsor resulted in a facile victory, and now given the chance to run over 12 furlongs on softer going, we may be about to see a career best.
If I thought the Derby was hard to assess, then the Dash (3.45pm) is an absolute minefield.
However, fortune favours the brave, and I’ve found two I want to keep on side.
I like backing horses at Epsom who’ve demonstrated ability at the track, and SILKY WILKIE fits that bill, running a blinder to finish a short-head second in this race last year.
He looks well-handicapped here off 99, eight pounds lower than in 2023, and has operated on easy going in the past, so rates as a good each-way bet at 15/2.
DREAM COMPOSER has been a mainstay in sprint handicaps like these, and could have his day in the sun, or should I say rain, on Saturday.
He arrives here off the back of a couple of cracking runs this term, loves deep going, and has shown strong form at the similarly undulating Goodwood, so should handle Epsom just fine, and I like his chances each-way at 20/1.
POINTERS SATURDAY
Silky Wilkie e/w 3.45pm Epsom
Dream Composer e/w 3.45pm Epsom
Ancient Wisdom 4.30pm Epsom
Deira Mile e/w 4.30pm Epsom
