A new study has just exposed what could be a real issue for Newcastle United in terms of their financial fair play position.
Newcastle are the richest club in the world on paper thanks to their Saudi owners but they are shackled by the Premier League and UEFA’s spending rules.
Essentially, they need to create more income before they are able to unlock the Public Investment Fund’s vast wealth.
Commercial revenue, matchday income and player trading are the areas that are under their control, and they havetaken measures to make strides in all three.
But in terms of player sales, a new statistical report has found that the Tynesiders may struggle in the long term.
Newcastle named least sustainable club in Premier League
According to industry experts CIES Football Observatory, Newcastle’s squad is the worst in the Premier League in terms of sustainability.
The study assess three main factors – squad size, average player age and contract lengths – as well as a range of contextual variables to make its assessment.
Newcastle have used 46 players in all competitions over the last three seasons, have fielded players over the age of 31 for 25 per cent of their total minutes this season, and 46 per cent of their squad are on contracts that expire in 2025 or earlier.
That gives them, according to CIES’s analysis, a continuity index score of 72.1, which is lower than any other club in the Premier League.
Essentially, that means that Newcastle have the squad which is most at risk of losing value. And with the club’s FFP position meaning they may be forced to sell, that could be a genuine problem.
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Do Newcastle have to buy before they sell in the summer window?
Newcastle have a number of highly valuable assets – Alexander Isak, Bruno Guimaraes and Anthony Gordon could all elite stars likely fetch £80m-plus in today’s market.
Eddie Howe will hope that, if they do have to sell, it will be the next rung of players who might be sacrificed. £30m-rated Miguel Almiron has been widely linked with an exit, for example.
In terms of their raw FFP position, Newcastle will learn more after the Premier League votes on a new set of Profit and Sustainability Rules at their AGM on 6th June.
But with that vote likely to green-light a new squad cost control ratio and financial anchoring system, things could be about to get tougher for Newcastle.
Most estimations have Newcastle somewhere between £45m and £63m over the soon-to-be-implemented new threshold, based on their current set of accounts.
That will of course be adjusted when they release their 2024-25 accounts, thanks to a season in the lucrative Champions League and ever increasing commercial revenue.
But with no European football of any description next season thanks to Man United’s surprise FA Cup win, Newcastle will likely have to be savvy when it comes to player trading this summer.
And while they are unlikely to be forced to sell a big-name star, the reality of the situation is that they are not in a position to turn down sensible offers.