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PARIS — It's a scenario that seems to have played out several times since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began 27 months ago: a dizzying debate before new escalation in Western military involvement in the conflict. This time, a big step is to be taken: It involves authorizing the Ukrainian army to strike on Russian territory with weapons supplied by Western countries.
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At a joint press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz this week, French President Emmanuel Macron broke a taboo: He gave the green light to the use of French Scalp missiles against Russia, on the condition that they are used against military targets threatening the Ukraine, not civilian targets. Macron had prepared his announcement; he had in his hand a map to illustrate his point.
So far, only the United Kingdom has agreed to take this step, which the United States is refusing to do for its own missiles. As for Germany, Scholz has agreed with Macron, but refuses to supply the German-made Taurus missiles that could accomplish this mission.
Hybrid wars are preferred
As at every stage of this conflict, it's a question of the “co-belligerence” we've been talking about for the past two years. It is difficult to define in precise legal terms. And history is full of wars in which foreign weapons were used, even with advisors on the ground, without this principle being mentioned. There will be “co-belligerence” the day Russia decides, and Vladimir Putin is already saying that he is at war with NATO.
“This permanent escalation could have serious consequences."
Nevertheless, it again raises the question of Russia's possible response to greater Western involvement, especially if its soil is targeted by French weapons. “This permanent escalation could have serious consequences,” Putin said on Tuesday during a visit to Uzbekistan. Yet he has never taken the risk of retaliating directly against a NATO country, preferring hybrid wars that are not always visible.
So far, the threat has never deterred the West. And Macron considers it less serious than the threat Ukraine's defeat would pose to European security. That is the main reason for his tougher stance, even if the U.S. seem to be wavering this time.
Biden under pressure
U.S. President Joe Biden is on the campaign trail, and doesn't want rising tensions with Russia to favor his Republican challenger, Donald Trump. Biden is under pressure.
The Washington Post published an unusual op-ed on Wednesday by Yuriy Fedorenko, commander of a Ukrainian army drone unit. Fedorenko addresses the U.S. president and describes how he saw, with his drones, his comrades being massacred in the Kharkiv region because the Ukrainian army is not allowed to fire U.S. ammunition toward Russian territory, where the attacks originate.
Fedorenko calls for a change in U.S. policy. NATO's Secretary General and the Polish government have lent their support.
In eight days' time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Biden will be side-by-side in Normandy, for the commemorations of the Allied D-Day landings on June 6, 1944. The memory of a war fought 80 years ago, to speak of the one being waged today, on the other side of the European continent. The challenge for Zelensky is to change Biden's mind.