For many the story of this election has already been written, a Labour win, and it’s all over bar the shouting, another 1997, but this time in 2024 with social media involved.
Or is it? It’s easy to look at the start of this campaign and think the prevailing narrative is the right one.
The state of the polls. The number of colleagues retiring. The ill-advised decision to visit the Titanic Quarter in Belfast, with all the images of a sinking ship, etc.
Yet on the doorstep, it feels very different to 1997 and the reasons are clear when you think about why.
Ask yourself, when did a friend or colleague last say to you that they thought Sir Keir Starmer would make a great PM? Or on what issue did someone tell you they find Starmer particularly inspiring? The answer is none.
Alongside this, those of us involved in Westcountry politics back in 1997 remember that political giant Paddy Ashdown was in our region at that time.
Ashdown was respected across the political spectrum and appeared a natural for a senior role in Government regardless of his party.
It’s a sign of how far his former party has fallen since, that Sir Ed Davey now must engage in childish publicity stunts to get attention, all the time trying to avoid talking about his role in the Horizon Post Office scandal.
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS:
Suggesting Ashdown should hold a Great Office of State produced votes, suggesting Davey hold one produces laughter.
Some will say, 'But surely Reform will take lots of votes and let Starmer in by default'. Perhaps.
Yet many thinking of voting for them dearly love our country, hence their frustration on issues such as small boats and ensuring Parliament, not foreign courts, decide our laws.
They don’t need me to tell them what voting Reform will produce for our nation now Nigel is not standing, while Labour talking about changing the rules on who can vote in future elections.
So, could the Blues still win it? Despite all the current polls. The answer is yes! Yet we will not win by simply being viewed as the least worst option by an electorate bored with Starmer and bemused by Davey.
Elections hang on three core factors:
1. Priorities – Are yours the same as the nation’s?
2. Policies - Do you have answers to the issues voters are prioritising?
3. Delivery - Credible plans to deliver your policies on voters’ priorities.
There is a real opportunity for the Prime Minister to set out policies which appeal, like triple lock plus and more apprenticeships, alongside clear answers on how we will deliver change on problems like NHS dentistry, housing and immigration.
Use the forthcoming TV debates to show the positive plan versus the non-existent alternative, then get the soapbox out and campaign hard.
No one votes purely based on the swing in their mosaic group, therefore every leaflet delivered, every phone call to an undecided voter, and every doorstep conversation will make a difference.
In Torbay, Conservatives believe you can win against the odds. We did so in last year’s council elections when it had been assumed we could not possibly get the votes needed for victory. A year later our national party can do the same.
