You couldn’t really put a bow on the draft withdrawal deadline until one of the top players testing the waters made his decision official, Jaxson Robinson choosing whether to keep his name in and pursue his professional dreams or pull it out and return to school for one final year. Every other major announcement was made before midnight while the former BYU star’s lingered into the early afternoon on Thursday, surprising the basketball world with a withdrawal and immediate commitment to Kentucky.
And with that, the draft list is official — no turning back to college now. While decisions are still coming regarding transfer locations, there won’t be any changes coming with the pool of talent available for schools hungry to add that one final cherry-on-top piece in the coming days and weeks. What you see is what you get, and for the most part, the foundation is set. We know the teams who will be competitive and those who will stink with slight potential for movement in both directions depending on how the final portal dominoes fall.
What did we learn from the deadline with summer workouts right around the corner?
Kentucky joins the big-picture conversation
No, we’re not using this space to say Mark Pope is guaranteed to lead the Wildcats to No. 9 following Robinson’s addition. We won’t even use it to say a deep run is inevitable. As we’ve seen in recent years, nothing is certain in March, no matter the talent level out on the floor — even two top-10 draft picks and a career 20-point-per-game All-American, three of the six most efficient shooters in school history.
What we will say? Kentucky is in the mix, and national talking heads will have no choice but to include the Cats in the conversation, something they were hesitant to do going into the deadline. You were hard-pressed to find Pope’s group listed in any top-25 rankings, most playing wait-and-see before buying in completely. The narrative on the outside looking in was that UK loaded up with productive role players, but the top-end talent was limited.
Robinson’s addition established credibility. No more nonsense about players not wanting to follow Pope or the new head coach unable to land his big fish. If last year’s BYU squad playing its first season in the Big 12 can finish ranked No. 18 nationally by KenPom — Kentucky closed at No. 23, mind you — no reason this upcoming group can’t do the same. They’ve got the pieces to compete.
Alabama will be a terror both in the SEC and nationally
Every single question the Crimson Tide had going into the offseason was answered by the time things wrapped up at the midnight deadline. Mark Sears, an All-American guard and among the most dynamic scorers in college basketball, announced his return a few hours before the horn. The fifth-year senior is coming off a season where he averaged 21.5 points, 4.2 rebounds and 4.0 assists while shooting 50.8% from the field, 43.6% from three and 85.7% at the line — as dangerous a bucket-getter you’ll find at this level and a clear early favorite for SEC Player of the Year.
And then Jarin Stevenson announced his return for a sophomore campaign after emerging as a flashy piece down the stretch, highlighted by a 19-point effort in the Elite Eight in a win over No. 6 seed Clemson. He’s got breakthrough potential for a team that really doesn’t need a breakthrough star with Grant Nelson previously announcing his return for a fifth and final season and Cliff Omoruyi, arguably the best big in the portal, also transferring in from Rutgers.
Factor in the likes of Latrell Wrightsell Jr., Chris Youngblood and Aden Holloway with a third-ranked recruiting class featuring top-40 prospects Derrion Reid, Aiden Sherrell and Labaron Philon, and it’s clearly one of the deepest, most talented teams in the nation coming off a Final Four run.
The race for No. 1 is on
We already know about Alabama’s loaded roster, but it’s hard to pencil the Tide into the top spot with a number of other stacked teams fighting for No. 1, as well.
Kansas is in the running, building a similarly jam-packed squad headlined by the return of Hunter Dickinson for his 37th season of college basketball. He’ll be joined by vets KJ Adams and Dajuan Harris with top-tier transfers AJ Storr, Rylan Griffen and Zeke Mayo bringing the core rotation together. Flory Bidunga is also sliding under the radar as a top-20 freshman set to anchor the defense off the bench. While Johnny Furphy kept his name in the draft at the deadline — a tough, but expected hit — there is still plenty of talent to go around in Lawrence.
Elsewhere, Gonzaga got All-WCC transfer Michael Ajayi to withdraw at the deadline while also returning four of five starters from an Elite Eight squad that finished ranked No. 12 in KenPom with the No. 5 offense in college basketball. Houston is in a similar boat, returning the likes of LJ Cryer, Emanuel Sharp, J’Wan Roberts, Joseph Tugler and Terrance Arceneaux while adding Oklahoma transfer Milos Uzan. Jamal Shead is a game-changing loss, but the rest of the core is back. They’ll be a player, as will Iowa State, returning three starters from a top-10 team.
And we can’t forget about the reigning champs, right? Alex Karaban announced his return coming off back-to-back national titles in Storrs with eyes on a three-peat, joining a UConn squad that also includes Aidan Mahaney, Tarris Reed Jr., Liam McNeeley and Ahmad Nowell, along with other key returnees.
Heavy hitters return to school (at a cost)
Sears was the headliner at Alabama, citing NIL as the difference-maker in his decision: “(It) has changed basketball,” he said. Nate Oats said the same, adding that college players are better off taking lucrative NIL deals than signing two-ways in the NBA.
“He wasn’t going to get a guaranteed contract,” Oats said.
The same can be said about Arkansas’ Johnell Davis, who withdrew to play for John Calipari at a seven-figure cost. Illinois transfer Coleman Hawkins pulled out at the deadline with the understanding he would become “among the highest-paid NIL college basketball players,” potentially surpassing the $2 million Great Osobor received from Washington leaving Utah State. Robinson wasn’t cheap for Kentucky, neither was Karaban for UConn. Guys like Dickinson and North Carolina’s R.J. Davis didn’t think too hard about their decisions too hard as All-Americans with limited pro upside — they’re both going to cash in.
And how about someone like Second Team All-SEC honoreeMatthew Murrell, who decided to return to Ole Miss before the final buzzer, immediately putting the Rebels in the thick of the SEC race under Chris Beard? That’s an NIL decision, too.
It wasn’t a perfect science with the likes of Memphis’ David Jones and San Francisco’s Jonathan Mogbo keeping their names in the draft, turning down lucrative money in college to move on with their lives as pros. Overall, though, paydays helped trim the fat in the draft for players who were on the fence and have historically stayed in pre-NIL.
The college game got better this week.
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