Good things come to those who wait. Some may call Big Blue Nation crazy or hypersensitive. We may prefer passionate, but the answer is likely a healthy mix of all three. The last 24-48 hours have certainly been a rollercoaster of emotions for Kentucky fans. Wednesday evening’s 11:59 p.m. NBA Draft withdrawal deadline came and went with zero news from Jaxson Robinson. Then, over 12 hours later, there was still absolutely nothing other than message board threads and anxious Twitter comments. However, just after 12:30 p.m. Eastern Time, fans of the Wildcats got what they had been waiting for since Coach Mark Pope was introduced as the new head coach. Jaxson Robinson officially withdrew from the NBA Draft and simultaneously announced his commitment to the ‘Cats.
There is a lot to like about Robinson’s on-court game and he fills a need for Kentucky. However, what his commitment signifies beyond the hardwood may be even more important. Coach Pope has done an incredible job building his first roster in Lexington since taking over the job on April 12th. In seven weeks time he has built a roster from zero to 12 players. There was still a looming question though about reeling in the “big one.” Fair or not, many fans wanted to see Coach Pope land a potential star and there was no more sensible target than a guy who had already played for him for two seasons. The Wildcats needed Robinson for basketball purposes, but the coaching staff needed him for other reasons as well. Thursday, May 30th will go down as an important day for Kentucky Basketball.
After less-than-stellar stints at Texas A&M and Arkansas, Jaxson Robinson began to flourish as a junior at BYU. He stepped into a starting role and averaged 8.5 points per game while shooting a much improved 61-178 (34.3%) from three-point range. Then, even with a step up from WCC to the Big 12, Robinson completely broke out as a senior. The 6’7″ wing averaged 14.2 points last season on 42.6/35.4/90.8 shooting splits. He finished in the 75th percentile, per Synergy, in points per possession and rated similarly in effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage. His ability to score the basketball, while leading BYU to 23 wins, a fifth place finish in the Big 12, and a six-seed in the NCAA Tournament, earned him Big 12 Sixth Man of the Year honors.
As always, we’ve been hard at work in the KSR Film Room breaking down Kentucky’s latest commitment. This one brings the scholarship total to 12 and likely wraps things up for a little while on the recruiting front. Jaxson Robinson fills an important need for the Wildcats as a go-to scorer and provides continuity for Coach Pope. His ability to go get a bucket, and familiarity with the offense, will be extremely valuable. Robinson is a proven high-volume three-point shooter, but is also excellent in screening action and as a cutter. The fit will be seamless and his addition likely raises Kentucky’s ceiling. This is now a borderline Top 15 roster in college basketball. Let’s dive on in and get to know more about Jaxson Robinson and what he brings to the table for the ‘Cats.
Three-Point Shooting Ability
Jaxson Robinson shot 178 three-point shots in his first season playing for Coach Mark Pope. That number grew to 229 attempts last year while his percentage increased fro 34.3% to 35.4%. For context, Antonio Reeves had 188 attempts from beyond the arc in 2023-2024. There is a constant pressure put on the defense due to Robinson’s shooting ability. He forces opponents to chase him off of all screening action and will create a lot of switches as well. The way he moves around without the ball makes everyone on the floor better. That is where the continuity within Coach Pope’s offensive system comes into play. Playing with more overall talent around him it may be unlikely that Robinson gets 200 or more attempts this season, but that should also help improve his efficiency. Kentucky, on paper, has one of the best shooting teams in college basketball.
Using Jaxson Robinson as a screener is incredibly effective. You can expect to see a lot of this as BYU’s zoom action transfers over to Kentucky this season. When Robinson sets the downscreen his defender stands up and relaxes for just a split second. However, that split second is all the 6’7″ wing needs to pop pack to the perimeter and squeeze off a three-point attempt. You will not have to worry about Robinson passing up open shots.
Here is another look at Robinson operating within BYU’s zoom action, but from a different spot. This time he is the cutter and reads the defense perfectly. Kansas switches out aggressively to stop Robinson as he comes off of the downscreen to receive the handoff. However, Robinson sees the switch and stops on a dime to create separation between him and his new defender. Per Synergy, he rated in the 88th percentile when playing off of screening action like you see in this clip.
SHOOT ‘EM ALL, JAXSON will get tweeted many times this coming season. He is certainly not shy about getting them up. This clip shows Robinson pulling up from the left wing in transition and nailing the attempt. Shots like this are how you end up getting off 229 three-point attempts. Coach Pope will want him to take this shot every time it is open.
Obviously the roster construction is different and Jaxson Robinson is the only holdover from BYU, but it is safe to assume Coach Pope will try to implement much of what worked with the Cougars. This is beautiful offensive action as they get through a staggered triple and a staggered double before bringing Robinson off of the single downscreen. His defender gets caught going up through so Robinson plants his foot, flares the screen, and knocks in the three-point attempt. Absolutely beautiful execution.
Not even the best defenses in college basketball are ready to guard over 30 feet away from the basket. Robinson’s ability to stretch the defense well beyond the three-point line will be incredibly valuable. He has to legitimately be respected out to this range.
Creating His Own Shot
Jaxson Robinson’s growth from solid starter as a junior to best player as a senior largely came from his improvements off of the dribble. In a lot of ways, it was similar to the development of Antonio Reeves between year one and year two at Kentucky. As a junior, Robinson took over two-thirds of his shots from beyond the arc and was only 47.7% from two-point range. However, in his second season playing for Coach Pope, Robinson reduced his three-point volume to less than 60% of his total shots and increased his two-point field goal percentage to 53.2%. This development also allowed him to get to the foul line, where he shot over 90%, 65 times instead of only 25 trips the previous season. It is exciting to imagine what further growth Robinson will display as a fifth year player.
Positional size and length go a long way for Jaxson Robinson. At 6’7″ with a wing span just over 6’11” he can get up and finish around the rim at a high percentage. He also displays great pace with the ball in his hands and an overall comfortability playing off of the ballscreen. This isn’t necessarily the strong suit of Robinson’s game, he rated “average” in the 47th percentile per Synergy as a pick-and-roll ball handler, but that was a drastic improvement from the 17th percentile the year before.
Driving lanes tend to open up when you are a high-level shooting threat. Defenders are always going to chase Robinson over the top of screening action which makes it easier for him to drive the basketball. Look at his defender’s feet when Robinson receives the handoff. He is so worried about taking away the three that he allows a wide open driving lane. Once again, the length helps finish at the rim here as well.
The majority of Jaxson Robinson’s three-point shots come off of the catch. However, his continued development off of the dribble has allowed him to create his own shot attempts some as well. Here is forces a switch that leaves Texas’ big man on an island. A simple step back creates the necessary space and Robinson nails the three. This is the shot creation that Kentucky’s roster was still looking to add.
Coach Pope’s offensive structure does a lot of the shot creation itself. However, you still need guys who can create something themselves. Whether it is a broken play, late clock, or just good defense there is always a need for a bucket-getter. Jaxson Robinson will be that guy. He could have squeezed off the three-point attempt behind the handoff, but instead he drove baseline and created even more separation for the pull-up jump shot.
We’ve showcased several clips where Robinson’s threat as a shooter directly influences his defender. In this clip you see his defender jump out aggressively to cheat over the top of the ballscreen. However, he commits too early and allows for Robinson to reject the ballscreen and get downhill in a straight line. These little mid-range jump shots may not be analytically friendly in the grand scheme of things, but when he is able to be so wide open they are high percentage for him.
Cutting Within the Offense
Since Coach Mark Pope was hired back on April 12th we’ve talked a lot about BYU’s offense and how it will translate to Kentucky. Jaxson Robinson will be the only player with experience within the offense, but a lot of the pieces, on paper, seem to fit the style of play. While Robinson’s shooting ability is what captures national attention, his progress as a cutter has taken his game to the next level. Playing in so much space, with so much shooting gravity, opens up the floor for cuts to the rim. Last season, per Synergy, Robinson rated “excellent” in the 92nd percentile as a cutter. His familiarity with the offense should allow him to flourish off of the ball once again.
Opponent scouting reports likely will treat a lot of Kentucky’s offensive action under Coach Pope as if they are guarding the Princeton. When guarding the Princeton you WANT your man to have the ball. Obviously the overall offensive system is different, but conceptually it will be the same from a scouting perspective. Due to the space created from so many shooters the most dangerous players will often be those without the ball. Robinson shows that here as he back cuts his man for a layup. Amari Williams and Brandon Garrison are both good enough passers to hit a cutter like this as well.
We’ve talked about it already, but defenders are always going to chase Jaxson Robinson over the top of screening action. If you don’t, he will simply settle behind and shoot it in from three. However, by chasing, you open up his ability to curl to the basket. This is what spacing and shooting gravity create on the offensive end.
The previous clip showed Robinson curling the handoff for a dunk. This time he curls the downscreen, with his man chasing over top, and he lays it in. You are going to see a lot of this from him in Lexington this coming season.
Jaxson Robinson is a high-level shooter with the ball in his hands. However, he really blossomed when operating off of the ball through two seasons playing for Coach Pope at BYU. He will always attract a ton of defensive attention when coming off of screening action like this staggered double you see here. With his defender chasing over the top, Robinson curls the first screen and gets an open layup. Also, notice how the two defenders guarding the screeners tighten up to their men as opposed to helping towards the basket on the curl. That is the byproduct of filling the floor with shooters.
Evaluation
Jaxson Robinson is the perfect primary scoring option for a Coach Pope offense. He operates well in space, has positional size and length, and can shoot it a good percentage. The 6’7″ wing is thought of primarily as a shooter, and he is excellent in spot up situations or operating off of screening action, but his shooting gravity also has made him a very effective cutter. His familiarity with Coach Pope’s offense will allow him to fit seamlessly into a roster otherwise filled with completely new faces. Kentucky needed to add a go-to scorer and they got arguably one of the best available in Robinson.
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