Thurrock, in recent years an ultra-marginal fight between the Tories and Labour, was swept up by the Brexit revolution in 2016.
Residents in the deprived Essex seat decisively voted to cut ties with the European Union, with 72.3 per cent backing Brexit.
It was also a stomping ground for Ukip under Nigel Farage, returning 17 councillors as Tim Aker fell just 974 votes short of being elected as Thurrock's MP in 2015.
Despite proving fertile territory for Farage, Reform UK's campaign in Thurrock is struggling to get out of the blocks.
Reform UK stumbled out the blocks
Stumped by Rishi Sunak's decision to call a snap election, Farage's comrades have been slow to mobilise.
Reform UK only selected its candidate to contest Thurrock this week and GB News understands activists from the populist party have not yet been canvassing in the marginal seat.
Sophie Preston-Hall, who stood for Reform UK in Colchester's recent local elections, will contest the seat after another contender was axed.
"We did have a candidate but they weren't particularly active," a Reform UK source told GB News.
Despite other parties also facing last-minute pushes to contest constituencies, every second counts a bit more for Reform UK.
Reform UK should have benefited from the reservoir of disaffection directed towards the bankrupt council, with Ukip and independent candidates previously hoovering up support.
However, the populist party failed to field a single candidate during recent elections to Thurrock's unitary council.
Fuelled by a deluge of momentum following victory in Clacton in 2014, Ukip was able to mobilise a large number of local councillors and activists from its Thurrock branch as Farage donned his purple rosette to take Grays by storm.
Without a local base in Thurrock, Reform UK does not have the same manpower to launch a campaign similar to Ukip's 2015 offensive.
Reform UK insiders blamed lack of resources for its positive but half-hearted local election campaign just a few weeks ago.
However, it would appear Tice's troops could struggle to level the playing field after Sunak's snap poll announcement last week.
Thurrock Tories take the fight to right
Voter Seth Hesio told GB News: "Ukip were a presence around here. They had an office and Farage often came to visit. Ukip had substance but Reform didn't stand in the locals. It's strange because you'd think Thurrock would be fertile ground for Reform."
Sunak's snap poll decision prompted Farage to rule himself out of contesting his eighth Westminster race.
Accepting the difficulty of standing as an insurgent populist, Farage said: "The problem is, you can't win in a constituency - or it's very difficult to win in a constituency without data. It's even harder to win when you're Nigel Farage because the other side will cheat."
And, by the ex-Brexit Party leader's own comments, the 60-year-old understands just how important it is to get out of the blocks at full tilt during a short election campaign.
Farage added: "Six weeks isn't long enough to find a constituency seat and campaign around the country."
Reform UK's Thurrock announcement yesterday means Preston-Hall has just five weeks to shore up support without historic data at Reform UK’s fingertips.
Speaking to GB News, Preston-Hall said: “We are not about disrupting any particular party. We are here to win, in order to make real change people want. Every single vote, every single seat, matters to us.”
She added: “Reform would have required thousands of people to stand nationwide in the local elections and quite frankly we have such strict vetting procedures that we didn’t simply want to fill the ballots if we hadn’t conducted thorough checks on all candidates. Our commitment has always been to stand everywhere at the general election. Our efforts have always been geared towards that for years - and we are delivering. We are ready and have been for a long time.”
However, a local Tory source was scathing about the populist party’s decision to select Preston-Hall over a prominent figure, claiming: “Reform UK are fielding a bunch of randoms with no strategy, no money and no hope.”
An Essex Conservative MP added: “Reform are all mouth and no trousers. They haven’t got the organisation to make that happen unless they’ve got somebody who is motivated on the ground. Ukip fielded very good, highly motivated candidates but they don’t have that anymore.
“Many people joined the Tories from Ukip and others became independents. They were marched to the top of the hill. There was a hype in 2015, Farage was constantly visiting and they still didn’t make a breakthrough. Once you march to the top of the hill once and it doesn’t happen, you’re once bitten, twice shy.”
What's the big issue? Immigration
Voters in Grays appeared somewhat mixed about Reform UK's chances on July 4, particularly after Farage announced he will prioritise Donald Trump's third successive White House bid.
Paul Wells, a lifelong Tory voter who is undecided how he will vote, said his main concern was immigration but was not convinced by Reform UK.
"Reform has the strongest views on illegal immigration but I don't think they've got the strongest policy on it," he said.
Wells added: "I think Farage speaks the truth and I'd possibly have been more likely to vote for Reform if he was running."
John Clark also said: "Farage would have been the one. He spoke on things like Brexit and immigration. But he's not standing. He had his chance."
However, Tony Taylor claimed: "The big issue is immigration. Nigel, he's the man. He speaks the truth. We needed him up the top and Boris underneath him."
Sitting outside a coffee shop, Eileen Maxwell was adamant Reform would receive her vote with or without Farage at the helm.
She told GB News: "Nigel's got commitments in the US. He's run eight times already and hasn't achieved it. Why try again? There are people who would just love him to fail."
Maxwell, a long-time Labour voter who yesterday claimed the party no longer represents working-class people, cited immigration as the biggest issue.
She said: "Immigration, I suppose. I'm sure most people say that. It's definitely in their top three."
Despite some concern about Reform UK's ground campaign, Farage and Tice yesterday unveiled a migrant tax plan.
The ‘Bad Boys of Brexit’ have also looked to take advantage of Tory mishandling of the migrant crisis to turn July 4 into the so-called "Immigration Election".
Tories set sights on squeezing Reform vote
However, Tories in Thurrock appeared triumphant after Farage decided against standing in a constituency, arguing Sunak received a surge in support just weeks after voters opted to elect a Labour Council.
A senior Conservative campaign source said: "The Reform vote doesn't stack up after Farage ruled himself out of standing - people just don't think it's a realistic option."
Another prominent Tory activist added: "Thurrock has always been a place where Ukip did well but Reform is disorganised and unable to identify wards where they would be more successful than other places where they are standing candidates."
Despite a potential squeeze to Sunak, an Essex Reform UK insider claimed: "We are extremely active across the county. The appetite is very much there for change. The two-party system doesn't work but we represent credible and real change."
However, the source conceded some voters were disappointed by Farage's announcement.
"There has been some disappointment about Nigel not running," they said. "But Nigel will really come into his own campaigning across the country."
YouGov's latest MRP poll suggested Reform UK is trailing Ukip's position in 2015, currently down from 32 per cent to just 18 per cent.
JL Partners co-founder James Johnson, who worked as a pollster for Theresa May, also warned Reform UK’s vote is being squeezed by Sunak.
Johnson told GB News: “There is a natural squeeze taking place. We saw that with Ukip in 2015, and 2017. We saw it with the Brexit Party in 2019. But we have also seen it on the left, with Labour eating up some Lib Dem votes. The second reason, specific for Reform, is Nigel Farage isn’t standing for election. Farage is stratospherically popular with current Reform voters. Tice is popular too but far less well-known.
“That’s a real struggle because politics is becoming more presidential and people are more likely to make their decision based on who the leaders are. You might think Farage is in the picture - he’s on the TV everyday - and that’s true to an extent but fundamentally if you’re not standing in an election or leading a party, it makes it a lot harder for voters to take you seriously.”
Addressing issues facing the populist party at a grassroots level, Johnson added: “Reform doesn't have as much money as the Conservatives or Labour. They don’t have the infrastructure. That is less important than 20 years ago because social media makes it easier to reach voters directly.
“But it absolutely still matters and you’d be staggered by how many people in focus groups cite leaflets they’ve had through the door or conversations they’ve had when deciding how they will vote. It’s about persuading people to vote for you but it’s also about voters knowing you exist.”
JL Partners recent poll showed Reform UK dropping by one-point as the Tories received a two-point bounce to cut Labour’s national lead to just 12 per cent.
'It's me or Labour'
Thurrock MP Jackie Doyle-Price, who was first elected to the House of Commons in 2010, is currently defending a majority of 11,482.
Doyle-Price witnessed her support shoot-up following Boris Johnson's 2019 landslide victory, with her lead over Labour's candidate sitting at a nail-biting 92 votes in 2010.
Speaking to GB News, the ex-Health Minister said: “There isn’t a Reform vote to squeeze. We didn’t have any Reform candidates in our local elections at all. We did in the east side of the borough have some independents and in that sense there is a reservoir of protest. But people realise that they’re choosing a Government and that there isn’t going to be a Reform Government.”
Directly addressing the threat from Reform UK, Doyle-Price claimed: “Support for Ukip was based around the desire to leave the European Union. That’s happened and they’re already neutralised. It took Ukip 20 years to become as strong as they were. The only thing Reform has in common with Ukip is Nigel Farage. Nigel is semi-detached from them really. They’ve got a long way to go to get anywhere near as Ukip in Thurrock.
Doyle-Price, who was very reflective about the “drama” the Tories caused in recent years, added: “My conversations on the doorsteps suggest people turn to Reform when they don’t think much of either the Conservatives or the Labour Party. Before the election was called, you’d get a lot of it. But now the election has been called, people are properly thinking about how they’re going to use their vote.”
However, she stressed five weeks is a long time as voters were still “making up their minds” and Britain could soon face a situation similar to 1992 or even return a hung Parliament.
Doyle-Price urged Sunak to reassure voters in Thurrock that the Tories are the “safe choice”, adding: “Sunak needs to get across that you’re going to get quiet, sensible governance with the Conservatives.”
Sshe also highlighted her local record of bringing in millions of pounds of support to Thurrock.
A number of Tory bigwigs have ventured down to Thurrock so far, with Home Secretary James Cleverly knocking on doors for his Essex neighbour.
Despite this, Doyle-Price is facing a challenge from Labour's Jen Craft.
Labour's anti-Tory surge could seal victory
Craft, a former civil servant who was born and raised in Thurrock, is hoping to end the Tories' 14-year grip on the Essex seat.
Craft told GB News: “We don’t take anything for granted regarding opinion polls but the feeling I’m getting when I talk to people is that there is an overwhelming feeling that things do not work as they should. In Thurrock, we had a double-whammy; national issues such as the cost-of-living crisis, an NHS on its knees, and an historic level of bankruptcy for a local authority. We had to pay 18 per cent more council tax over the last two years and have our services drastically reduced.”
Addressing local concerns about immigration, Craft confirmed Channel crossings had been raised behind the cost-of-living and NHS.
She added: “People were not willing to talk to us about immigration for a long time because I don’t think they thought we had a lot to say about it. But they now want to talk to us about it and talk to me about it. They’re really quite responsive to us about making securing our borders one of our first six steps. It is really important to people here that immigration is seen as one of our main priorities for an incoming Labour Government … The concern comes from a place of fairness. They want to know who is in the country, a pretty reasonable ask given it's gone completely out of control the last few years. And they want a system that’s fair for people who are looking to come here and very much so for the people that are here already. And I think they’re very worthwhile conversations to have.”
Shedding some light about Labour efforts to court Reform-leaners, Craft concluded: “They often voted Conservative in 2019 but don’t want to do that again. They’re looking at where they’re going this time … What we are asking, and we don’t underestimate what we are asking them, is ‘put your trust in a different way’. Give us your trust and we won’t let you down. It is a big thing for people to make that step across but when we do have those conversations with voters who do think about voting for Reform we say, ‘I understand you’re looking for a new direction to go in and we want to get over that hurdle of what is it that is stopping you coming this way’.”
Craft also stressed her local reputation, Sir Keir Starmer’s six-stage plan and her experience of paying an additional £850 on her own mortgage repayments this year as reasons why she is cutting through with voters in Thurrock.
Starmer seemingly earmarked Thurrock as a key constituency ahead of Sunak's snap poll announcement.
The Leader of the Opposition opted to hold an event in the constituency where he revealed Labour's first six steps.
Labour activists in Essex have told GB News that the party has identified Thurrock and Colchester as its top two local targets.
Southend-on-Sea is also in play for Labour, with resources being pumped into both seaside seats.
However, a Thurrock Tory source said: “Labour voters came out of the woodwork in the local elections. Thurrock is going to be hard to call but we’ve always put it off when it seems impossible. I don’t put it past Jackie to do it again.”
Several voters in Thurrock were keen to throw their support behind Labour yesterday.
Hesio said: "To get the Tories out here, you have to vote Labour. But I do have faith in Starmer. He’s talking about important things, including levelling-up. Poverty and NHS waiting times are driving change. There just isn’t much hope at the moment.”
He added: “After five Prime Ministers, the disruption of Brexit and a lot of mismanagement, having a period of time with someone stable, a lawyer, a serious person, is a change for the better.”
Grace Kenny and Fiona Mulvey, both NHS workers, also revealed they were likely to vote Labour.
“The Tories have been awful and people feel like they don’t care about working people,” Kenny claimed.
Mulvey added: “Things have only got worse over the past 14 years. It’s time for a change.”
A sense of apathy
Kenny and Mulvey stressed their support for Labour was very much an “anti-Tory” vote and lamented Starmer’s position on Israel’s actions in Gaza.
Despite facing criticism over his stance on Israel, Starmer was handed a boost yesterday after outgoing Tory Bolton North East MP Mark Logan urged voters to support Labour on July 4.
Logan criticised Sunak over his position on Gaza, calling on the UK to recognise Palestine as its own sovereign country.
Many voters in Grays expressed their disaffection with the current state of politics altogether.
"I just don't have faith in any of them," retired police officer Costa Buller said.
Rush Shulka added: "It's tweedle-dee and tweedle-dumb. All I can see is the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer. If people think they're getting anything different with Starmer, they're deluded."
As the Brexit realignment appears to fade, seats like Thurrock are falling back into much more traditional voting blocks.
The now-marginal Essex constituency, staunchly Labour until backing Margaret Thatcher in 1987, will go far in demonstrating the latest shift in public mood when results trickle in on July 5.
Starmer will hope it propels Labour to power and Sunak will pray it shows the Conservatives can maintain their post-Brexit coalition.
However, for Reform UK, Thurrock might go down as a missed opportunity to score a political breakthrough.
The Brexit heartland seat looks set to teach populists a much-needed lesson in getting their act together before it is too little, too late.
GB News has approached Reform UK for comment.
