While Republicans are working overtime to spin former President Donald Trump's 34 felony convictions as a galvanizing moment for his campaign, one longtime Republican pollster is acknowledging that it may doom the GOP's chances in securing a majority of Electoral College votes.
After a Manhattan jury handed down its unanimous guilty verdict after just two days of deliberations, Trump doubled down on his common refrain of a "rigged" process, which he baselessly said was orchestrated by President Joe Biden. His surrogates, like Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), have asserted repeatedly on cable news that Trump was treated unfairly by Judge Juan Merchan and Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) denounced the verdict, calling it "further evidence that Democrats will stop at nothing to silence dissent and crush their political opponents." And Trump's supporters donated roughly $1 million per felony conviction in the 24 hours following the announcement of the verdict.
But Whit Ayres, who is a seasoned Republican pollster and strategist, had a more measured tone in a recent interview with the New York Times. He told the outlet: "A conviction on 34 felony counts is not a win for anybody."
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"The impact of this conviction is reduced because of the weakness and unpopularity of the alternative," Ayres said of President Joe Biden. "If the Democrats had a stronger nominee, the impact of this case would be more severe."
However, he added the caveat that despite Biden's poor performance in recent polls, that "changes at the margins might affect the outcome in swing states."
Post-verdict polls have yet to be released, and any prediction of polls shifting in the wake of Trump's convictions is premature. But in the six battleground states likely to decide the 2024 election — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — even just a few ten thousand votes shifting from Trump to Biden or other candidates could be what makes the difference.
If Biden wins the so-called "Blue Wall" states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that have gone to Democrats in the last eight elections (with the exception of 2016), he could win reelection without any of the other battlegrounds going in his way, provided he also maintains the one electoral vote from Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District. And because Biden won Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes by just over 21,000 ballots statewide, Trump's 34 felony convictions may prove decisive in a contest as close as the Badger State's.
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Trump will likely continue to be hounded on the campaign trail throughout the remainder of the election about his convictions despite his vow to appeal. And the story will likely stay prevalent between now and November, given that Trump and Biden are debating on June 27 and because Trump's sentencing will be held on July 11.
Additionally, the Supreme Court is set to rule on Trump's claims of absolute criminal immunity next month. Assuming the Supreme Court upholds the DC Circuit Court of Appeals' rejection of Trump's argument, the former president could have his second criminal trial in U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan's courtroom as soon as September, since the judge has signaled both sides would get up to three months of pre-trial preparation.
Click here to read the Times' report in full (subscription required).
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