The 2024 election is becoming more intriguing with many twists and turns, including a close race and the possibility of one of the leading candidates going to prison. Against this backdrop, poll results released on Thursday highlighted the various dynamics expected to unfold in the months leading up to the Nov. 5 election.
Two-Way Race: President Joe Biden leads his predecessor Donald Trump by a slim margin of two percentage points in a hypothetical two-way matchup, including among those who said they were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, a NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist National Poll of registered voters held between May 21-23 showed. The margin of error of the survey was 3.7 percentage points.
Support for the two candidates remains unchanged compared to early May. That said, Biden’s support among those who said they will definitely vote contracted from 52% in early May to 50% in late May. Trump, meanwhile, improved his standing in this category from 48% to 49%.
Biden lags behind Trump among independents, with 42% supporting Biden and 54% supporting Trump. But among voters who have an unfavorable opinion of both candidates, the former (49%) has a slight edge over the latter (47%).
Multi-Candidate Fray: When independent candidates Robert Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West and third-party candidate Jill Stein are included, Trump leads Biden 44% to 40%. In early May, it was a dead heat between Biden and Trump, with both receiving 42% support in a five-way race.
Kennedy’s support contracted from 11% in early May to currently 8%. Stein and West are backed by 3% and 2% of the voters, respectively, while, in early May, both had 2% of respondents backing them. The survey found that Kennedy took away support evenly from both Biden and Trump, while Stein and West have emerged as threats for Biden. About 5% of Biden’s voters who support him in a two-way race switched their allegiance to Stein when the ballot was expanded, while 2% moved to West.
Stein and West did not pull any measurable support from Trump, the poll found.
Ninety percent of registered voters said they would vote in the general election in November, 7% said they will vote but will skip the line for president and 3% said they are unlikely to vote. In another setback for Biden, 7% of his supporters are more likely to skip the presidential line compared to 5% of Trump supporters who said likewise.
“Despite Biden's campaign appearances and Trump's court appearances, the contest for president has been and remains tight,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. “When it comes to this rematch, it's as if voters are saying, ‘Tell me something about Biden and Trump I don't already know.'”
Sixty-six percent said they know for whom they plan to vote, and nothing will change their mind, with 68% of both Biden and Trump supporters firm in their commitment to their candidate. Twenty-five percent of voters said they think they have a good idea of the candidate they will support but could change their mind, while 7% said they have not yet made up their mind.
Will Guilty Verdict Hurt Trump? The poll conducted before the guilty verdict on Donald Trump showed that 67% of respondents said the trial’s outcome would not affect their vote if the former president were found guilty. Seventeen percent said they would be less likely to vote for him if he were to be convicted, while 15% said they would be more likely to vote for him.
On the other hand, 76% of voters said a “not guilty” verdict would not impact their vote. Nine percent would be less likely to vote for Trump, and 14% would be more likely to vote for him.
Trump Vs. Haley: The survey founded that 85% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents picked Trump over former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley (14%) as the Republican nominee, if given a choice. Incidentally, Haley recently said she would prefer Trump over Biden in the 2024 race, although she conditioned her support on the former reaching out to her backers.
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