Living in a battleground state, Michigan voters have an influence on who wins the U.S. presidential election — and can be unpredictable in which candidate they grant 15 electoral votes. In 2016, voters chose former President Donald Trump but reversed course in 2020 to elect Democratic President Joe Biden.
With a 2020 Trump vs Biden presidential rematch around the corner this November, Chuck Todd, a political analyst for NBC News, spoke with WDIV-TV news anchor Devin Scillian on Wednesday about the upcoming national election.
“We would only be so lucky to be in a coma for the next six months,” Scillian said, referencing the stress associated with the upcoming election.
The conversation was on the agenda for the second day of the annual Detroit Regional Chamber’s Mackinac Policy Conference.
Scillian said he believes whoever wins Michigan in the presidential race will win the election.
“It does feel like Michigan is a bit more volatile,” Todd responded. He said he flips back and forth between Michigan and its neighbor, Wisconsin, on which state is more decisive in the bigger picture of the election.
Todd attributed the volatility to a divided Republican party in the state, a question on turnout for the election and the potential for a protest vote against Biden over how the administration has handled the situation in Gaza.
Todd did talk briefly about the impact of progressive voters’ frustration with how the Biden administration addressed Israel’s military attacks against Hamas militants in Gaza that have resulted in tens of thousands of civilian deaths. He said Wisconsin could also pull an impactful protest vote. However, the U.S role in Israel may not be as salient of an issue come November if there is a ceasefire in the meantime, according to Todd.
Environmental concerns and cost of living will be bigger issues for Generation Z voters, Todd said.
“It’s their own version of sustainability,” Todd said. “For them, economic sustainability and climate change are interlocked.”
Scillian and Todd discussed several other issues that could sway the election, including Trump’s ongoing criminal trials, perceptions of the economy, ballot initiatives for abortion rights and third-party candidates.
Whether or not Trump is convicted in his ongoing criminal trial will not have a huge influence on his fate in the presidential election, according to Todd. Voters may not see Trump’s personal affairs as an important factor in their decision.
“Voters already knew who they were electing in Donald Trump in 2016,” Todd said. “The ‘Access Hollywood’ tape was not kept secret. That was a very well-known fact, and they elected him anyway.”
However, voters across the aisle care about the economy, a topic Biden is not really campaigning on, Todd said.
Biden’s campaign focuses on labeling himself as good for democracy. But Todd said most people who are invested in democracy already support Biden.
“If you are in the dispassionate middle or not paying attention, you’re just trying to live your life,” Todd said. “And what’s in front of you: cost-of-living.”
Generally, U.S. voters seem dispassionate about their options in the upcoming election, and some have looked for paths to another nominee. Todd said there are no other realistic options at this point, but he referenced some other candidates who might be better fits for a White House run, including Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who is at the conference.
Todd and Scillian also discussed Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a buzzy third-party candidate. If debates between Trump and Biden are messy, Todd predicts more voters will become “Kennedy curious.” While RFK Jr. doesn’t really have a shot at the top office, he could pull votes away from either of the main party candidates.
While the Kennedy family members are important figures in the legacy of the Democratic Party, Todd predicts that connection will matter less to voters. Instead, he said some Republicans, specifically the ones invested in conspiracy theories, will vote for Kennedy over Trump.
“What are you afraid of Joe Biden?” Todd said. “… If you think you are dealing with one conspiracy theorist, don’t you want the conspiracy theorist vote split in two?”
Voters may not feel too excited to cast ballots for Trump or Biden, but the chance at expanding abortion access through a ballot initiative could reinvigorate them. Many Democratic politicians are running on increasing abortion access, and states across the country, including Missouri and Florida, will most likely have a question on the ballot for voters pertaining to that issue in November.
Todd said abortion access, and the chance to vote on it, could increase voter turnout and bring energy to the Democratic Party on Election Day.
“I look at my own daughter, who’s 20, goes to school in the state of Florida, is now figuring out how to register to vote in the state of Florida, because of that initiative,” Todd said.
Todd and Scillian also talked about the role of journalism in the U.S. and how to improve the industry. Todd said journalists should see themselves as a public service for people and connect national news to local news.
Michigan Advance is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Michigan Advance maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Susan J. Demas for questions: info@michiganadvance.com. Follow Michigan Advance on Facebook and Twitter.
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