Germany is bound to miss its target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 65% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, according to the government's climate advisory body.
In contrast with earlier statements by Economy and Climate Minister Robert Habeck, the Council of Experts on Climate Change thinks the 2030 target will not be met.
In March, Habeck said: "If we stay on course, we will achieve our 2030 climate targets."
Chairman of the council, Hans-Martin Henning, takes a different view.
"Overall, we cannot confirm the cumulative target achievement for the years 2021 to 2030 shown by the 2024 projection data; on the contrary, we assume that the target will not be met," Henning said on Monday.
The council's 130-page report published on Monday is based on the projections of Germany's Federal Environment Agency (UBA).
Germany's Climate Law stipulates that greenhouse gas emissions are to be reduced by at least 65% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels.
By 2040, it should be at least 88% and by 2045, Germany should reach climate neutrality - meaning it emits no more emissions than it can compensate for.
According to the UBA projections announced by Habeck in March, Germany would remain just within the legally permitted target for greenhouse gas emissions.
However, the council does not expect this to happen for two reasons.
Firstly, information is missing on the probability that emissions will actually develop as assumed. According to the experts, the projected emissions in the energy, building and transport sectors and, to a lesser extent, in industry were underestimated.
Secondly, the experts point out that the calculations only include data up to October 2023. After this, the government made significant budget cuts affecting its multi-year climate and economic transformation fund - following a court ruling that sent the government's budget plans into disarray.
According to the council's projection data, the even more ambitious climate targets can also be expected to be missed for the period from 2031 to 2040.
The target of greenhouse gas neutrality will also not be achieved by 2045 or 2050.
The Council of Experts on Climate Change is a panel of scientists appointed by the government for a period of five years who work independently.
Its tasks include the annual review of the Federal Environment Agency's preliminary data on greenhouse gas emissions from the previous year.
Every two years, the experts also submit a report which analyses the effectiveness of measures to achieve Germany's climate targets.
