WMO expects El Niño climate event to end, La Niña to emerge this year

An outdoor thermometer in an allotment garden shows the temperature to be close to 40 degrees in Germany. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) expects the El Niño climate phenomenon responsible for record-breaking global temperatures to end this year. Jens Büttner/dpa

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) expects the El Niño climate phenomenon responsible for record-breaking global temperatures to end this year.

In a press release on Monday, the WMO said there is a 70% probability that the La Niña weather event will emerge by November, as a result of cooler temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

In many places, La Niña has the opposite climate impact to El Niño, the WMO said, although the effects of La Niña are much stronger in the tropics than in Europe.

According to the current forecast, Central America, the Caribbean and parts of northern South America and eastern Africa, among other regions, should expect above-average rainfall with the start of La Niña.

The WMO warned that the end of the El Niño cycle will not lead to a pause in long-term climate change, as the Earth will continue to warm due to heat-trapping greenhouse gases.

"Our weather will continue to be more extreme because of the extra heat and moisture in our atmosphere," said WMO official Ko Barrett.

According to the WMO, El Niño - a phenomenon which occurs naturally every two to seven years and is marked by a warming of the central and eastern Pacific - peaked in December.

Barrett added: "Every month since June 2023 has set a new temperature record – and 2023 was by far the warmest year on record."

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