Concerns are rising in Europe over Russian interference in elections this week to the European Parliament amid reports of cyberattacks, internet platforms disseminating propaganda and even payments to European politicians.
Russia has been engaging in illegitimate activity for years through disinformation campaigns and fake news sites, according to Lea Frühwirth of the Berlin-based Center for Monitoring, Analysis and Strategy (CeMAS).
She predicted that the elections, being held from Thursday to Sunday, would be a target for this sort of activity, with typical examples being the discrediting of parties and politicians, and the sowing of mistrust concerning the legitimacy of the electoral process.
Russian propaganda forms a constant background noise, in Frühwirth's view, but the elections provide an opportunity to exacerbate the increasingly polarized European political atmosphere.
News and comment about the Russian invasion of Ukraine is the most obvious example of this, with the East StratCom Task Force part of the EU's diplomatic service – reporting that disinformation on Ukraine makes up 40% of the cases in its database.
A video disseminated on social media in March, for example, showed a tank flying a blue flag similar to the EU flag. The tank was said to be in Russia near the border with Ukraine. The flag was in fact that of the Freedom of Russia Legion, a unit of Russians fighting on the side of the Ukrainians.
The source of videos like these cannot always be determined. East StratCom Task Force analysts believe that disinformation campaigns on the war are aimed at undermining EU support for Ukraine.
Russian interference goes well beyond disinformation, with the Kremlin accused of being behind cyberattacks on key databases. There aims could include "capturing data, or undermining critical infrastructure or communications," Frühwirth says.
German political parties, logistics companies, aerospace and IT services have all seen hacking attempts in the recent past, with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock pointing the finger in one clear direction: "Russian state hackers have attacked Germany in cyberspace," she said last month.
Germany attributes the attacks to the APT28 unit in the Russian military intelligence service, which is known by various names, including "Fancy Bear."
There have been attacks on state institutions in a string of EU member states, including Poland, Lithuania, Slovakia and Sweden, according to EU sources.
A prominent example of Russian influence-peddling is the Prague-based Voice of Europe platform, which is suspected of disseminating pro-Russian propaganda and of making payments to EU politicians.
The platform recently carried interviews with politicians from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), one of whom has been accused by a Czech newspaper of possibly receiving Russian money. The politician, Petr Bystron, has repeatedly denied the allegation.
In late May, the EU sanctioned Voice of Europe for a "systematic, international campaign of media manipulation and distortion of facts to destabilize Ukraine, the EU and its member states."
Frühwirth cautions that attacks on the legitimacy of the elections could follow once results have been declared, with the aim of causing long-term problems. "The end of the election campaign does not have to mean the end of election-related interference," she says.