Kimi Antonelli is the heavy favourite to replace Lewis Hamilton at Mercedes in 2025. For the first time since they returned to F1 in 2010, the Silver Arrows are set to field a rookie.
Antonelli won’t be thrust straight into a title fight, in all likelihood. Mercedes are a distant fourth in the constructors’ championship right now and it’s hard to see them making that up deficit over the winter.
But if that reduces the pressure on the teenager, then the identity of his predecessor ratchets it right back up. Indeed, Hamilton is the most successful driver in F1 history and he won six of his seven world championships at Mercedes.
Comparisons to the British veteran will be inevitable. He too jumped straight into a top F1 seat with McLaren back in 2007.
Antonelli is currently competing in his first season of Formula 2 and sits sixth in the championship after the first five rounds. He’s finished fourth twice, but has yet to score his first podium.
Carlos Sainz is also an option for Mercedes after losing his Ferrari seat to Hamilton. But even though Sainz would appear a safer bet with 190 race starts, three wins and 22 podiums, Toto Wolff and the board seem inclined to promote from within.
Kimi Antonelli could battle George Russell to be Max Verstappen teammate at Mercedes
Wolff has been open about his desire to sign the reigning world champion and 59-time race-winner Max Verstappen. While he’s unlikely to leave Red Bull this year, the talk in the paddock is that he could depart ahead of 2026.
The team principal would revel in a coup of that magnitude, particularly given the embarrassment it would cause Christian Horner, but it could also give him a problem. He’d be juggling Verstappen, Antonelli and the incumbent George Russell for two seats.
Writing in a Q&A on the BBC Sport website, journalist Andrew Benson suggested that Antonelli could go ‘head-to-head’ with Russell for the seat alongside Verstappen. And he fears that the Italian could lose out.
After all, Russell has now completed 112 Grands Prix and bagged 11 podiums, including a victory in Brazil in 2022. And he’s also had a clear edge over seven-time world champion Hamilton this season.
“If Mercedes do secure Verstappen for 2026, that means 2025 would be effectively a head-to-head between Russell and Antonelli if the Italian is promoted, which is not yet a given,” Benson said.
“Talented as Antonelli is, it would be hard to bet against Russell in that situation, given that he has been in F1 since 2020. Which would leave Wolff with something of a headache for 2026. But I suspect he would say that was both hypothetical and a nice problem to have.”
Mercedes deny reports Antonelli has already beaten Russell
Antonelli has lit up the junior formulae, drawing comparisons to Verstappen and Charles Leclerc among figures at Mercedes. It’s fair to say he’s needed more time to ramp up in F2, but he could still be competing for regular victories by the end of the season.
The 17-year-old is one of the most exciting talents in the business right now, and one report has even claimed that he got the better of Russell in a private test. Mercedes have been putting Antonelli through his paces in old F1 machinery, and their senior driver joined him on track at Silverstone last month.
The suggestion was that the academy starlet was just as quick in qualifying trim and even faster on race fuel. If true, this would be a truly extraordinary feat.
Without making specific reference to this claim, Mercedes said in a statement that the published ‘comparisons’ do not ‘reflect what happened’ (via RaceFans). They won’t publicly release Antonelli’s lap times for obvious reasons, but it may not be long before Antonelli and Russell are competing in an official F1 session.
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