Between Thursday and Sunday this week, around 360 million people in the European Union will have the opportunity to elect the next 720 members of the European Parliament.
The latest polls and projections show that right-wing parties opposed to immigration are poised to make significant gains, with parties once on the fringes now growing in influence in the EU. Overall, however, Europe's political centre is expected to hold.
Polls predict gains for the Identity and Democracy group, a coalition of largely nationalist political parties. Also expected to perform well are conservative and soft-Eurosceptic parties affiliated to the European Conservatives and Reformists group.
Already at the start of the year, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) predicted a “sharp right turn” with anti-EU parties winning in nine EU countries, including Belgium, Italy and France.
“Today there is room to build a different majority in the European Parliament, and for different policies,” said Italian prime minister and the leader of the right-wing Brothers of Italy (FdI) party, Giorgia Meloni, last week.
At the EU level, FdI is part of the ECR, of which Meloni is also president. Last week, she said she had several things in common with Marine Le Pen, the leader of France's right-wing National Rally (RN), which is part of the Identity and Democracy (ID) group.
“It is clear that there are points in common,” Meloni told the Trento Economy Festival. “There are points of contact on combating illegal immigration, on the approach to the Green transition, on defence of the European identity.”
Le Pen's party ahead in France
An opinion poll published in France on Sunday put the RN-led right-wing coalition and its lead candidate Jordan Bardella at 32.5%.
A centrist coalition that includes Emmanuel Macron's Renaissance came a distant second with 16%. Its lead candidate Valérie Hayer also heads the pan-European Renew group. The centre-left alliance followed with 13%.
Turnout woes
In Spain, the latest pre-election survey by the Centre for Sociological Research (CIS) predicted a victory for the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), but most other polls predict that the country's conservative People's Party (PP) will come first.
Meanwhile, Portugal grapples with fears of low turnout. It is one of the EU countries that allows early voting, which was reinforced this year in an attempt by the Portuguese authorities to encourage people to vote.
Many Portuguese went to the polls several days early last Sunday, following the country's worst abstention rate during the 2019 elections, when around 69% of eligible people didn't vote.
This was Portugal's lowest turnout since it joined the EU in 1986 - though EU countries such as the Czech Republic, Slovenia, Slovakia and Croatia consistently see lower turnouts at EU elections.
Slovenia, meanwhile, will hold three referendums at the same time as the European elections, including on assisted suicide and the legalisation of cannabis.
Government parties in Slovenia had hoped that the simultaneous referendums would increase turnout. A poll commissioned by national daily Delo last Friday suggested that 39% intended to vote, which would be Slovenia's highest EU election turnout ever.
In Slovakia, the attempted assassination of the left-wing nationalist Prime Minister Robert Fico has shaken up the campaign and could boost support for his coalition.
In Poland, where Donald Tusk's pro-EU government came to power late last year, the campaign has been marked by farmers' protests, supported by the right-wing nationalist opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party.
Migration on voters' minds
EU voters, according to surveys, are concerned about the war in Ukraine, the economy, trade, migration, climate change and the risk artificial intelligence may pose to jobs.
In Austria, for example, a recent survey said migration and income inequality were voters' top priorities.
Anti-immigration parties such as Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) in the Czech Republic have succeeded in making the topic of migration a major issue in this election as well. The SPD argues that the government negotiated poorly on the EU's new migration pact and thus invited migrants to Europe and to the Czech Republic.
ANO 2011, the party of former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš and part of the Renew Europe group in the European Parliament, has gradually become one of the most vocal critics of the EU. It strongly opposes the EU Green Deal and the migration pact. According to polls in May, ANO 2011 is set to come first with 23.1% of the vote.
Voting in non-EU Bosnia and Herzegovina
Some campaigning is even taking place in Bosnia and Herzegovina, despite the country not being a member of the EU, because Bosnian Croats with Croatian citizenship will be allowed to vote for neighbouring Croatia's 12 EU legislators.
However, Bosnian Serb politicians have blocked Bosnia from giving diplomatic authorization for Slovenia, Poland and Romania to organize embassy voting for their citizens in the country. The Slovenian foreign ministry summoned the Bosnian embassy's interim chargé d'affaires in Ljubljana to protest.
The Bosnian Serb opposition to the elections is a reaction to those countries' endorsement of a UN resolution recognizing the July 1995 Srebrenica massacre as an act of genocide. Over 8,000 Bosniak men and boys were systematically slaughtered in the town of Srebrenica by Bosnian Serb forces.
The content of this article is based on reporting by AFP, ANSA, APA, CTK, dpa, EFE, Europa Press, FENA, Lusa, STA as part of the European Newsroom (enr) project.
