The handful of U.S. Senate races that will decide partisan control of the upper chamber of Congress will come down to whether voters go with battle-tested, highly experienced Democrats or wealthy Republican political neophytes self-funding their campaigns, according to a new report.
On Wednesday, online news outlet NOTUS reported that the Republican Party's inability to fund Senate challengers' campaigns with small-dollar fundraising means the GOP is now depending on multimillionaire candidates to stay competitive with Democrats. Republican Senate primary winners in battleground states have mostly been businessmen with no prior experience in elected office, like Eric Hovde in Wisconsin, Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania, Bernie Moreno in Ohio and Tim Sheehy in Montana.
"We’ve focused on recruiting candidates who are really strong fundraisers or who are capable of making a personal investment in their campaign to try and close the money gap," an unnamed Republican aide told NOTUS.
READ MORE: Busted: GOP Senate candidate running on rural roots grew up 'three miles from a Trader Joe's'
Another unnamed senior GOP strategist speaking anonymously to NOTUS told the publication that the Republican Party' "shrinking small-dollar base has left it scrambling" in order to field competitive Senate candidates. The strategist added that the GOP's small-dollar donor base continues to shrink with every election cycle.
"You’re not going to make it up from there, so where are you going to do it?” the strategist said. “And that leaves you with people who have their own funds.”
The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), which is the GOP's Senate campaign arm, has still raised nearly $134 million for the 2024 cycle, according to Ballotpedia data as of April 30. That's more than the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) $116 million. However, the DSCC has $41 million in cash on hand compared to the NRSC's $36 million. And Democratic Senate candidates in battleground states still have a significant money advantage over their Republican candidates.
In 2024, Republicans need a net gain of just two Senate seats in order to retake the majority. with Sen. Joe Manchin (I-West Virginia) retiring in a state that's voted for Republican presidential candidates in the last six consecutive elections, that effectively means the GOP needs just one Democratic-held seat to flip. And with multiple Democratic candidates in red states like Montana and Ohio running for another term, the Senate could flip to Republican control by ousting Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) or Jon Tester (D-Montana). The difference may come down to campaign cash.
READ MORE: These 10 U.S. Senate seats are most likely to flip in 2024
In the 2024 cycle, Tester has raised more than $36 million, and still has $11 million in cash on hand according to Opensecrets. Brown is similarly flush with cash, having raised more than $39 million with nearly $16 million on hand. Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pennsylvania), who is running for a fourth term this fall, has raised an impressive $23 million with almost $12 million still available to spend this cycle. Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin) is still sitting on more than $10 million in cash on hand with more than $26 million raised so far.
According to Cook Political Report, Republicans are outside of the margin of error in the Pennsylvania and Wisconsin Senate races, meaning they'll be leaning heavily on Montana and Ohio in their effort to win back the Senate majority. Latest polling averages show Baldwin and Casey are nearly 10 points ahead of their Republican opponents. RealClearPolling figures show Brown leads Moreno by approximately five points in Ohio, and Tester has a similar lead over Sheehy in the Big Sky State.
Click here to read NOTUS' report in full.
READ MORE: GOP Senate candidate running on 'bootstrap' narrative got 6-figure investment from his parents
