As EU citizens prepare to elect the next European Parliament, the bloc's politics nerds are asking whether European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will be allowed to keep the top job - and if not, then who might replace her.
Whoever wants the job needs to overcome two obstacles. First, they need to be nominated by EU leaders in closed-door talks after the elections. Second, the nominee needs to be confirmed by a majority in the European Parliament.
In 2019, Ursula von der Leyen only cleared that second hurdle by the skin of her teeth, with a margin of just nine votes. There's no reason to assume 2024's new parliament will be any friendlier to her.
The front-runner: Ursula von der Leyen
Be that as it may, the incumbent von der Leyen is still - for now - the most likely person to get the job. She hopes her handling of the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war will stand her in good stead.
However her go-it-alone management style draws criticism from her commissioners.
Von der Leyen's reluctance to talk to the media is well known and her lack of transparency is legendary.
So too is her decision to live ensconced on the 13th floor of the commission headquarters: what some see as a sign of her work ethic, others say makes her look detached and even peculiar.
While von der Leyen secured a major deal with Pfizer to procure Covid-19 vaccines in 2021, the terms of the contracts - including what price the EU paid - have never been made public.
The commission has refused to disclose the vaccine contracts under freedom of information requests, as well as text messages exchanged between the commission chief and Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla. That refusal is now the subject of a lawsuit filed by the New York Times.
Von der Leyen, a German member of the centre-right European People's Party (EPP), secured the top job in 2019 thanks to the votes of the liberals and social democrats.
In the course of her term, von der Leyen shed support from the EPP and to shore up a majority has not ruled out working with more right-wing politicians, in particularly Italy's Giorgia Meloni.
This, in turn, has jeopardized her alliance with the liberals and social democrats.
The dark horse: Mario Draghi
Speaking of Italians, in any conversation about EU top jobs, Mario Draghi's name is certain to come up. Some believe he could replace von der Leyen as commission president.
The former Italian prime minister and president of the European Central Bank has been out of a job since his government collapsed in 2022.
Draghi has been quietly working on an EU competitiveness report to reboot the bloc's economy, which is lagging behind the United States, buffeted by the Covid-19 pandemic and subsequent energy shocks linked to the war in Ukraine.
Italian media have reported that French President Emmanuel Macron, von der Leyen's chief backer in 2019, has been sounding out his EU counterparts on nominating Draghi for the role.
The French and Italian statesmen see eye to eye on many policies, especially joint borrowing in the EU, but appointing Draghi is a long shot.
The Italian technocrat has never been elected to public office and is not affiliated with any of the major European Parliament groups campaigning to secure the role. Aged 76, some also question his ability to lead the EU through the challenges of the next five years.
Von der Leyen's EPP are expected to secure the most parliament seats in the election - as they have in every election since 1999 - and are unlikely to relinquish their claim to the presidency.
There is however another vacancy for a president across the road, at the European Council. Draghi may just find a home there if the politics between the left, right and the liberals works out.
The consequential also-rans
While it is hard to overlook von der Leyen's chances, others have thrown their hat in the ring and could demand concessions in return for supporting her.
The centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) group are fielding Nicholas Schmit, the current EU commissioner for jobs and social rights. The S&D lag well behind von der Leyen's and the EPP though.
Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, a German from the liberal Renew group, does not have the necessary numbers. Nor do the Greens led by fellow German Terry Reintke and Bas Eickhout of the Netherlands.
The far right groups, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and Identity & Democracy (ID), are refusing to field lead candidates in the elections.
Neither would ever receive enough support from other parliament groups to control the commission, an appointment that would be considered scandalous despite their growing support.
Anyone's guess
Ultimately, as the process is hardly formal, when EU leaders get behind closed doors to start the nomination process, any name with with the right support could emerge. Just like von der Leyen in 2019.