Recent polling since Donald Trump was convicted on 34 felony counts has shown him losing support from independent voters but maintaining the potential votes of most Republicans — but that could all change if he finds himself in prison.
That is the opinion of Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson, who writes in the New York Times that no one, Donald Trump in particular, should take the early polling after the historic conviction for granted.
As she noted, the fact that Trump is now labeled as a "convicted felon" has cost him a few conservative votes but they may have major reservations if he finds himself in jail.
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"Impressions of Mr. Trump are so powerfully ingrained, it would take something even more monumental than being found guilty of falsifying business records to change it," she wrote before warning, "I believe that if Mr. Trump is given a sentence involving prison time that could shape the race."
In what seemed like a backhanded compliment, she wrote, "'Trump is a convicted felon' is a statement about who he is as a person — corrupt, rule-breaking, dishonest — which is something that people already have firm opinions about," before adding, "'Trump is going to prison' is a development of a different nature, an elevation of the severity of the situation and what a Trump presidency might mean for the country beyond simply 'Trump is a bad man.'"
That, she asserts, could be a game-changer when voters go to the polls.
"That Mr. Trump might be heading to prison is something most undecided and Trump voters have not priced into their assumptions about the presidential race. That immediately makes the situation much more volatile," she cautioned.