For the first time in the history of Formula 1, the grid looked identical at the start of the 2024 season compared to the final race of the year before.
It was a decision described as scandalous by Eddie Jordan with another generation of rookies having to patiently wait for their opportunity.
However, speaking on The Race Podcast, journalist Scott Mitchell-Malm believes that won’t be the case in 2025.
Although nothing has been confirmed at the time of writing, there are several rookies who look primed to join the grid next year.
Mercedes have very high hopes for Kimi Antonelli and he’ll be handed the unenviable task of having to replace seven-time champion Lewis Hamilton.
Ferrari look set to place the most exciting driver in their academy – Oliver Bearman – at Haas and the team appear very keen to make the move happen.
The likes of Liam Lawson, Jack Doohan and even Victor Martins have been named as potential options for teams further down the grid next year.
Mitchell-Malm believes that the three drivers who will miss out on earning a seat next year are Logan Sargeant, Kevin Magnussen and Zhou Guanyu.
Nothing is set in stone at this stage but none of their prospects are looking particularly positive at this stage.
Logan Sargeant, Kevin Magnussen and Zhou Guanyu could miss out on 2025 F1 seats
The trio of drivers in danger of missing out are in very different situations at this stage.
Sauber haven’t officially confirmed two new drivers for next season, but Nico Hulkenberg will almost certainly be joined by a second signing in 2025.
That leaves Zhou and Valtteri Bottas looking elsewhere on the grid and while he’s potentially an option for Alpine, they have plenty of other drivers on their radar.
Kevin Magnussen’s Haas contract expires at the end of the year and as explained above, Hulkenberg has already signed a deal elsewhere and Bearman will likely arrive in his place.
However, Haas are unsure whether Magnussen deserves a new deal and his rapid accumulation of penalty points hasn’t done him any favours.
Haas are looking at the likes of Yuki Tsunoda to potentially replace Magnussen with his route into the Red Bull team now firmly shut.
Logan Sargeant looks the most likely driver to be moved on at the end of the year with his second season at Williams not going to plan.
He’s not always had the same car as teammate Alex Albon but the gap between the two drivers appears to be insurmountable.
Williams are already lining up Carlos Sainz for next year and the three-time race winner would be a serious upgrade on the American.
2025 F1 grid beginning to take shape
Speaking about the potentially unlucky trio, Mitchell-Malm said: “I don’t see an outcome here in which [Kevin] Magnussen and Zhou [Guanyu] and [Logan] Sargeant obviously…I think those three drivers are gone as far as I can tell.
“I just can’t see how it shakes out from here that they get retained.
“You can’t rule out slightly strange variables like at Haas for example, Gene [Haas] calls the shots on the drivers and he likes Magnussen.
“They’re bringing in [Oliver] Bearman as the new, young exciting guy, maybe Gene will just unilaterally say, well I want Magnussen to stay then so we’ve got an experienced, proven driver and a reference for him.
“But, beyond that from a purely competitive point of view, I think [Esteban] Ocon and [Valtteri] Bottas, it would be surprising if the music stopped and there were no chairs left for them.”
Sargeant, Magnussen and Zhou still have time on their side although they will need to improve their form very quickly to stay in contention to either retain their seats or convince another manufacturer to offer them a contract.
Magnussen has experience on his side and Zhou brings commercial value due to his connections with China.
Sargeant is the youngest of the trio and has time on his side to continue improving, but F1 is nearly always too cut-throat to offer a driver a third season to prove he has the required level of potential.
The post ‘Can’t see how’: Journalist names three F1 drivers who will be ‘gone’ at the end of the 2024 season appeared first on F1 Oversteer.