Earlier this week, ESPN unveiled its first iteration of its college version of the Football Power Index. The proprietary analytics hope to provide a preseason and in-season evaluation of the college football landscape, tracking the strengths and weaknesses of all 134 programs relative to that of an “average” FBS team.
And Penn State, predictably, is taking center stage ahead of the Nittany Lions’ 2024 campaign.
Ranked No. 6 overall, joining a top tier of programs headlined by Georgia, Oregon, Texas, Ohio State and Alabama, the Nittany Lions would be considered a 19.8-point favorite to open the season against an average team. In the same evaluation, Penn State is expected to win 10 games (well, 10.1 wins and 2.3 losses, to be specific) with a 59.1 percent chance to reach the playoff.
But, when pushing through the math, what do ESPN’s college football reporters really think of Penn State’s chances? Earlier this week, the media outlet surveyed its writers for picks regarding the FPI’s most undervalued and overvalued teams. Selections were also made for teams with “odd” rankings that will be proven correct by the year’s end. So too were picks made for non-Top 25 teams capable of making a CFP run.
What they’re saying about Penn State
Though Penn State isn’t a pick for over- or undervalued teams in the FPI, it was a selection later on. Currently ranked No. 6 by the metric, ESPN senior college football writer Jake Trotter said they fit the bill as a program that will live up to an FPI ranking that is likely higher than the first round of polls will show.
Jake Trotter: “Penn State has been overshadowed by Ohio State and Michigan in the Big Ten. Yet while the Wolverines and Buckeyes have uncertainty at quarterback, the Nittany Lions have the top returning QB in the league in Drew Allar, who threw 25 touchdowns with only two interceptions last season.
“Could this be the year that Penn State finally gets over the Big Ten hump? A No. 6 ranking might seem high. But the Nittany Lions have the pieces on both sides of the ball to warrant such a bullish outlook.”
Scouting Penn State’s other opponents
Penn State isn’t the only Big Ten program taking on a big stage in ESPN’s initial FPI offering. Southern Cal warranted a mention. And, it is not only program on the Nittany Lions’ schedule to get a nod.
In the same category as Penn State, the Trojans are projected to remain a middle-of-the-pack program by one writer. This despite the loss of Caleb Williams this offseason.
Paolo Uggetti, ESPN staff writer: “There’s a strong belief within the program that quarterback Miller Moss will be a more than capable replacement for Williams, and the much-maligned defense should be far better than last year’s unit under new defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn.
“But the schedule the Trojans face is a gauntlet. Not only do they open the year in Las Vegas against LSU, but they also play Michigan in Ann Arbor, host Penn State and finish the year with a road trip to Washington and a home matchup against Notre Dame... Still, USC should — emphasis on ‘should’ — have the talent to finish inside the top 20 by season’s end.”
Mark Schlabach, meanwhile, landed on an intriguing program capable outside of the Top 25 of producing a CFP run.
Mark Schlabach, ESPN college football reporter: “What about West Virginia? The Mountaineers went 9-4 last season, taking the pressure off embattled coach Neal Brown. West Virginia was fourth in the FBS in rushing (228.9 yards) in 2023, and tailback Jahiem White and CJ Donaldson are returning. Quarterback Garrett Greene is mobile and if he improves his accuracy, the offense will be more balanced.
“West Virginia’s offensive line allowed only 10 sacks last season, fewest in the Big 12. The defense was built on pressure, and the Mountaineers led the league with 33 sacks. Transfer defensive tackle T.J. Jackson (Troy), defensive end Ty French (Gardner-Webb) and cornerbacks TJ Crandall (Colorado State) and Ayden Garnes (Duquesne) should help fill some holes.”
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