No doubt, 2024 is going to be a redo for Aaron Rodgers and the Jets. His first season with the team ended after four offensive snaps. The rest of the year ended like so many others without a playoff berth.
Rodgers now is healthy after surgery last September to repair his left Achilles. He has no restrictions other than what a 40-year-old quarterback needs to do to keep himself upright and throwing.
But how many wins is Rodgers worth to the Jets? Cynthia Frelund, an analytics expert for NFL Network, recently crunched the win totals for all 32 teams. She based her formula on a mixture of stats, history and trends. It’s all numbers, with no gut feelings involved.
She came up with 9.6 victories for New York. She explained how she created the formula for her predictions.
“Using the projected 53-man rosters as of May 14, I ran 150,000 simulations for all 272 regular-season games,” she wrote.
She also noted “remember, these simulations account for many contextualized data points that have been proven to correlate to wins and losses based on historical football games that were actually played.”
New York Jets odds, projections for 2024
- Win Total: over 9.5 (-135)
- Make Playoffs: -130
- Win Division: +200
- Win Conference: +1400
- Win Super Bowl: +2500
Frelund writes of the Jets:
“I am SO looking forward to Week 1, when the Jets head to Santa Clara to face the 49ers. It’ll be really cool to see Aaron Rodgers play near where he grew up in his return from injury and in what will be the de facto restart to his Jets career.
“I played around with my models by equating win totals and volatility to a 100-point scale. The Jets’ schedule is almost 23 scale points more favorable than the Bills’, which is the biggest disparity between teams that ranked first versus third in their division last season. This shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone, but the Jets’ O-line and defensive depth will likely determine the team’s ceiling this season.”
The Jets really attacked their needs along the offensive line. They drafted offensive tackle Olu Fashanu in the first round of the draft. And they signed former Dallas Cowboy Tyron Smith in free agency. Plus, they also added two more potential starters in John Simpson and right tackle Morgan Moses.
They then gave Rodgers a second receiving option in Mike Williams to go along with WR1 Garrett Wilson. And if Rodgers gets hurt, his new backup is Tyrod Taylor.
This shouldn’t be a surprise, but Frelund and her formula predicted that the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs will top the AFC. She projects 10.9 wins. The Bengals, with a healthy Joe Burrow, come in second at 10.5 wins. Then there are the Houston Texans with CJ Stroud. Frelund says 10.3 wins. The formula has a tie for fourth between the Dolphins and the Ravens at 10.2 wins a piece.
The Bills are sixth at 10 wins, followed by the Jets at 9.6. Those are the playoff teams.
You can check out all of Frelund’s predictions here. And check out On3.com’s NFL coverage here.
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