The European Parliament elections are threatening in Germany to pile further pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz's struggling coalition, in a politically crucial year for the country.
Weak results would be a bad omen for Social Democrat Scholz just three months ahead of three state elections in the east, in which the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is predicted to do well.
The next national elections are also on the horizon in 2025, and the chances of the chancellor holding on to his job look grim.
Scholz's coalition is in desperate need of a fresh start, but the EU elections - being held in Germany on Sunday - are unlikely give him the boost he, his Social Democrats (SPD) and his governing coalition desperately need.
Anything but a 'strong voice'
With the claim to provide "Germany's strongest voices for Europe," the SPD campaign posters alongside roads in Berlin and across the country sport larger-than-life portraits of Scholz and the party's lead EU candidate, Katarina Barley.
According to Bremen-based political scientist Lothar Probst, however, the chancellor is "perceived as anything but a strong voice in Europe" ahead of the elections.
"With a modest result for his party, he runs the risk of sinking even further in voter favour and losing support within his own party," Probst told the Handelsblatt newspaper.
Polls on the European election currently put the SPD at around 15%, similar to its 2019 results (15.8%), but far below the 25.7% with which Scholz won the federal elections in 2021. That albeit slim victory paved the way for the SPD to return to the helm of Europe's largest economy after 16 years of conservative-led rule under Angela Merkel.
The news is not much better for Scholz's coalition partners. With around 15%, the Greens are far below the impressive 20.5% in the 2019 European elections. The liberal Free Democrats (FDP), meanwhile, are projected to gain only 5%.
Together, the "traffic light" coalition - named after the party colours red, green and yellow - are looking to collect 35%. If that were mirrored in Bundestag elections it would be far short of a majority.
Furthermore, a majority of German citizens seems to be dissatisfied with Scholz, with 59% rating his work as chancellor as "bad" according to a recent survey.
Sick man of Europe
Two and a half years into its term, there are various reasons why the centre-left coalition's popularity has been dwindling.
Most notably, concerns about rising immigration and a feeling that municipalities have been left alone with the issue have played into the hands of the far right.
Net immigration to Germany reached the highest level ever recorded in 2022, mostly due to an influx of refugees fleeing the war in Ukraine. Asylum claims have risen year by year, but have dropped again in 2024, with the government taking credit for the decline.
Energy policy, including a controversial law to replace old heating systems with renewable energy ones, and the constant squabbling between the coalition partners, have further dampened support.
On top of that, households are suffering from the effects of temporarily high inflation due to the war in Ukraine and weak economic development. Last summer, Germany was once again labelled the "sick man of Europe" - as it was at the turn of the millennium.
'Warning shot' for the government
The outcome of the EU election and the state elections in September are therefore expected to be a "warning shot to the governing parties," according to researchers Max Becker and Nicolai von Ondarza of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), which advises the government.
If the final results are in line with current polls, the conservative CDU/CSU bloc - who are topping the EU polls in Germany at around 30% - would be boosted in its ambition to take back the Chancellery in elections next year.
The AfD, meanwhile, has seen its popularity drop after a series of scandals, falling since the start of the year to around 14% for the EU vote - but still considerably higher than its showing in 2019.
This could boost the AfD as it readies to challenge mainstream parties in three state elections in eastern Germany - its electoral heartland - in September. In Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg the party is predicted to gain between 25 and 34%.
Though mainstream parties have vowed not to cooperate with the AfD, maintaining a so-called "firewall," the AfD's surge in the polls means the conservatives have shifted further to the right on topics such as migration so as not to lose more votes.
Polls also show the newly formed Sahra Wagenknecht alliance party (BSW) gaining ground at around 7%. The populist party combines left–wing social policy with an anti-immigrant stance and criticism of the European Union. It has yet to be tested at the ballot box.
A fresh start?
Some believe that a weak result for Scholz's coalition may affect Germany's standing in Brussels.
Internal bickering, for example on the reform of EU migration policy or the combustion engine phase-out, has already tainted Berlin's image as a leading force in Europe.
Recently, an EU supply-chain law caused controversy within the coalition, pitting the SPD and the Greens against junior partner FDP - causing Germany to abstain from voting after failing to find a common position.
If the coalition wants to fulfil its international obligations, in particular when it comes to climate policy, it is in desperate need of a "fresh start," writes the editor-in-chief of Berlin newspaper Tagesspiegel, Stephan-Andreas Casdorff.
After a higher regional court recently condemned the German government for inadequate climate policy, Berlin needs to "step up its game," Casdorff urges.