A strong predicted result for Ursula von der Leyen's centre-right European People's Party (EPP) firmed up her chance of a second term as European Commission president, according to projections based on exit polls in the European Parliament elections.
The EPP is forecast to hold the most seats in the European Parliament at 181, a boost to von der Leyen, as the liberal Renew group, who backed her appointment in 2019 are expected to drop from 102 to 82, the projections from Sunday evening showed.
Green parties are also projected to lose a large number of European Parliament seats, down from 71 to 53.
The centre-left Socialists and Democrats are projected to lose four seats - going from 139 to 135 - and the more extreme The Left group is projected to lose three, going from 37 to 34.
The result, based on national estimates from 11 EU countries so far, fends off a challenge from the far-right groups in the parliament that polled an estimated 133 seats, a gain of some 15 seats compared to the last elections in 2019.
Despite this, the far right are predicted to make returns. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in Germany is set to win an estimated 16 seats despite a string of recent scandals and polled second to the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU).
In France, French President Emmanuel Macron has decided to dissolve parliament, announcing new national elections, after his party lost to the far-right National Rally led by Marine Le Pen.
The National Rally received 31.5 to 32.3% of the vote, while Macron's pro-European camp only received around 15.2 to 15.4%.
If forecasters' predictions continue to be correct, far-right parties will do better this time around than ever before, potentially affecting everything from EU policy on migration and climate.
Von der Leyen needs to gather together support from a range of political groups, extending from the centre left to the centre right, to have her appointment backed by the European Parliament.
There are 720 seats up for grabs in the EU legislature, meaning von der Leyen needs 361 seats for a majority.
Continent-wide elections for the European Parliament had their last day of voting on Sunday, in a poll that could see up to 360 million people across the 27 EU member states cast their ballots over four days.
A strong predicted result for the CDU/CSU in Germany, winning nearly 30% of the vote according to exit polling from the European Parliament, demonstrated best the rightward shift taking place across the European Union.
Elsewhere, the far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) looks set to win in Austria with 27% of the predicted vote.
In the Netherlands, while the centre-left and environmentalist green parties held up better than expected, the far right Party for Freedom (PVV) still came a close second at nearly 18% of the vote.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk's liberal-conservative Civic Coalition is projected to get 38.2% of the vote in Poland, post-election polls conducted by the Ipsos opinion research institute indicated. The largest opposition party, the conservative nationalist Law and Justice party (PiS), came second with 33.9% of the vote.
The AfD is counted among the non-attached parties, as it was excluded from the Identity and Democracy (ID) group shortly before the European elections.
Voting has been taking place since Thursday, with the Netherlands kicking off proceedings. Ireland followed on Friday, with Czechs and Italians voting across two days.
Saturday was polling day for Latvia, Malta and Slovakia with the remaining member states holding their polls on Sunday.
Italy's firebrand Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni was polling well ahead of her rivals before the final day of voting and could be poised to act as kingmaker for the next European Commission president if her Brothers of Italy (FdI) makes major gains.
Incumbent von der Leyen has been openly courting Meloni in the hope of winning the confirmatory votes of the ECR group that Meloni now leads and whose ranks FdI candidates aim to join if elected to the European Parliament.
As the EU's third-most populous country, Italy can send a total of 76 delegates to the 720-seat European Parliament, meaning anyone who wins big there would be in a powerful position at EU level.
According to a "poll of polls" compiled by the news website Politico, the conservative FdI is in first place with 27%, six points ahead of the centre-left Democratic Party.
The first preliminary results from some EU states are expected after 11 pm.
