-Analysis-
There are already fears over the Venezuelan presidential elections, scheduled for July 28. The socialist regime now led by President Nicolás Maduro, which has all but destroyed the economy and pushed more than 7 million Venezuelans to leave in desperation, is keen to keep the power it has held for 25 years. But while polls show that nearly 70% of Venezuelan voters support the main opposition coalition, anything is possible.
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The Maduro regime will not voluntarily cede power, and it is estimated to have prevented the registration of some 10 million people. It has also imprisoned 10 opposition leaders this year and another six, facing arrest warrants, are taking refuge in the Argentine embassy.
Three options
The opposition's real leader, María Corina Machado, has been harassed. Her popularity led Maduro to prevent both Machado and the her replacement replacement Corina Yoris from registering as presidential candidates.
We will win, one way or another.
This forced the opposition to choose Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, a retired diplomat. To stop Machado from campaigning in favor of González, the regime has prevented her from boarding planes, blocked roads where she is to travel and sanctioned hotels that host her meetings.
Clearly, Maduro, who has said "we will win, one way or another," is unlikely to win a free and fair election — and has three options to avoid defeat.
One is to cancel or postpone the vote, citing any number of possible excuses. Second is to ban González as he did Machado and Yoris, to ensure the opposition fields the feeblest of candidates. And third is to announce his own, no doubt outrageously fraudulent, victory.
Regional concerns
Venezuela's institutions would back Maduro of course, with the military quelling any public protests. That makes international oversight crucial, especially by observers from the EU, the UN and the Carter Center.
Colombia has spoken in favor of free elections in Venezuela.
Supporters of democracy in the region and beyond are watching the electoral process with grave concerns. They fear Maduro may push thousands more Venezuelans to leave the country in abject despair and to head straight for neighboring Colombia or Brazil, and the United States.
The government in Colombia has made declarations in favor of free elections in Venezuela and has criticized the opposition's treatment. Belatedly if not unrealistically, Colombian President Gustavo Petro and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva even proposed holding a referendum to give guarantees to the election's losers.
In any case, already host to several million Venezuelans, Colombia's reactions over the next six weeks to any of the three options will be crucial to whatever scenario winds up unfolding.