Rishi Sunak, the UK Prime Minister, is facing a significant decline in popularity, particularly among 2019 Conservative voters, following his controversial decision to skip D-Day commemorations for a campaign television interview.
The Prime Minister’s approval rating has dropped by 12 percentage points in a week, a development that has put him behind Nigel Farage, who has recently resumed leadership of Reform UK.
Sunak’s net score among 2019 Tory voters falls drastically
According to a survey conducted by JL Partners, Sunak’s net score among 2019 Tory supporters plummeted from 20 points on June 1 to eight points on June 8.
In stark contrast, Farage’s rating rose from 12 points to 15 within the same period, marking the first time the former UKIP leader has surpassed Sunak in popularity among this demographic.
The decline is largely attributed to the backlash over Sunak’s absence from the D-Day commemorations in Normandy, a move that has been widely criticized.
Conservative voter loyalty wanes
The JL Partners survey further reveals that only 40 percent of 2019 Conservative voters intend to stick with the party. Meanwhile, 20 percent are considering a switch to Reform UK, and 15 percent are leaning towards Labour.
These numbers highlight a growing dissatisfaction within the Conservative base, which poses a significant challenge for Sunak as he seeks to maintain party unity and voter support.
Joe Alder, a senior researcher at JL Partners, commented on the situation:
“Looking just at the Conservative base, Rishi Sunak’s positivity numbers have now dropped for the second week running, following an initial election-calling bump. It seems that the PM’s increased visibility is not doing him any favors with these crucial 2019 voters who, by contrast, seem to be warming to Reform UK’s new leader, Nigel Farage. It may well be that Sunak’s D-Day debacle is denting the PM with the voters he most needs to impress.”
Labour leads as Reform UK gains ground
A separate JL Partners poll underscores Labour’s commanding lead over the Conservatives, with Sir Keir Starmer’s party at 41 percent and the Conservatives trailing at 24 percent. Reform UK has risen to 15 percent, while the Liberal Democrats remain steady at 11 percent.
These figures suggest a potential fragmentation of the right-wing vote, which could complicate the Conservative Party’s electoral prospects.
James Johnson, the co-founder of JL Partners, noted that voters who were initially undecided are now turning away from Sunak.
Voters who entered the campaign unsure of how they would cast their ballot have also begun to turn against Mr. Sunak.
This sentiment is corroborated by a further survey from Redfield & Wilton Strategies, which recorded Sunak’s approval rating with all voters at a dismal minus 27, the lowest ever for him as either prime minister or chancellor.
Sunak’s previous high approval during the pandemic
Sunak’s current predicament marks a stark contrast to his high approval ratings during the pandemic.
His net score had once approached 60, buoyed by his management of the furlough scheme, which he credits with saving millions of jobs and businesses, and the “eat out to help out” initiative aimed at revitalizing the hospitality sector. However, these past successes seem insufficient to mitigate the current backlash.
Impact of Reform UK’s rise on Conservative seats
The resurgence of Reform UK, led by Farage and party chairman Richard Tice, threatens to cost the Conservatives dozens of seats.
Unlike in 2019, when the Brexit Party stood down candidates to avoid splitting the right-wing vote, Reform UK shows no intention of withdrawing its candidates, posing a direct challenge to Conservative dominance in several constituencies.
The political landscape appears increasingly volatile, with the Conservative Party grappling with internal discontent and external competition.
Sunak’s decision to prioritize a campaign interview over a symbolic international event has not only damaged his personal standing but also exacerbated voter alienation at a critical juncture.
As the election approaches, Sunak faces the dual challenge of repairing his image and shoring up his party’s fragmented voter base.
The D-Day controversy serves as a stark reminder of the delicate balance required in political leadership, particularly when symbolic actions can have profound electoral repercussions.
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