Apple Inc is a name synonymous with innovation, slick user interfaces and legendary pioneering. Over the past decades, it has kept financial markets riveted: not just with supersized returns, but also with high variability and volatility at times.
So, what could a highly fluctuating and difficult-to-predict stock like Apple be worth by the year 2030?
Apple stock to reach over $400?
With a stock as divisive as Apple, it’s somewhat understandable that experts differ wildly on their long-term views on the Apple share price.
Coin Price Forecast, for example, believes that the Apple stock price will climb as high as $414 per share around this time in the year 2030.
On its forecast from 2026 to 2030, Coin Price Forecast says that “these five years would bring an increase: Apple price would move from $235 to $423, which is up 80%. Apple will start 2026 at $235, then soar to $245 within the first six months of the year and finish 2026 at $248. That means +28% from today.”
However, it should be noted that the site is quite bullish on Apple. Its mid-year 2024 stock price forecast for Apple Inc was $199 stock price. But Apple’s current share price now, in June, is quite a way away from that still, at $193.12 at the time of this article going to press.
Apple’s 2024 so far
But actually, the Silicon Valley titan has not had nearly as good a first half of the year as most of its Magnificent 7 peers.
Apple Inc’s stock price has risen $7.48, just over 4%, since the start of 2024. Compare that with Meta Platforms’ 45% rise in the same time period, or Nvidia’s meteoric 152.8% YTD jump in stock price.
Also revealing was last month’s reconstitution of the Russell 1000 index. According to FTSE Russell, Apple Inc. actually lost market cap in the past year, falling 2% to $2630 billion. As a result, Microsoft retook its crown as the largest company position in both the Russell 3000 and Russell 1000 Indexes, dethroning Apple from the top spot for the first time since 2020 and the pandemic.
Read more: Apple WWDC 2024: here are the AI announcements $AAPL made today
The OpenAI ChatGPT game changer
Investors have been critical of Apple in the past months, with some suggesting that the former disruptor is behind on the trend, when it comes to harnessing the newfound power of generative AI.
All that changed yesterday at Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference. At it, Apple CEO Tim Cook announced ‘Apple intelligence’, which will see the company’s new devices fully integrated with OpenAI’s ChatGPT, which the Magnificent 7 company has entered into a new partnership with.
Read more: IMF warns that AI adoption could cause a stock market crash
Apple stock up by over 300%
In the past five years, though, the Apple Inc stock price has risen as precipitously as you’d expect over the longer-term: over 300% from around $48.19 per share in mid-June 2019 to over $144 more than that today.
Does that mean that Apple Inc’s share price will rise another 300% by 2030, to give it a stock price of more than $579 per share?
What our Invezz analyst says
Invezz analyst Ritesh A. doesn’t think so – although he is positive on the stock overall:
“Unlike most other Magnificent 7 stocks, Apple looks quite strong on long-term charts as it trades near its all-time high,” says Ritesh.
However, he adds that it has encountered formidable resistance around the $200 mark over the past year.
Despite multiple attempts since July 2023, the stock has struggled to surpass this psychological barrier, despite potential catalysts (an example being yesterday’s Apple WWDC conference, which had lukewarm reactions from the stock market, in stark contrast to Nvidia’s GTC conference earlier this year.)
This could last until 2030, says Ritesh:
While the present resistance may pose a challenge, I remain optimistic about Apple’s capacity to overcome it in the future, given its status as a consistent cash generator. However, I don’t anticipate the stock generating substantial price returns in the coming 5 to 7 years, even with Apple’s significant stock buyback initiatives.”
Best and worst case scenarios
Ritesh A sees a positive mid-term outlook as most likely for Apple, with it “experiencing gradual and steady growth, characterized by periods of consolidation that may test investor patience before upward momentum resumes.”
Although the risk of a significant downturn is minimal, as a potential worse-case scenario, Ritesh can also foresee potential for the stock’s valuation multiples (P/E ratio, EV/EBITDA ratio and so on) to contract as the company’s growth rate moderates, contributing to a prolonged period of range-bound trading.
He concludes that:
By 2030, I anticipate Apple’s stock to appreciate modestly from its current level, likely by 20 to 50%, primarily driven by buybacks. Additionally, investors can expect to benefit from the company’s dividend payouts, which may contribute an additional 5-10% to overall returns during this timeframe.”
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