Ukraine's economic growth rate is expected to increase from 3.2% in 2024 to an average of 5.8% per year in 2025-2026, provided that active hostilities continue throughout 2024 and then become moderate, according to the World Bank's Global Economic Prospects report (June 2024).
"The recovery will depend, first and foremost, on the evolution of Russia’s invasion, and is expected to be supported by an increase in exports and reconstruction investments," the report states.
According to the World Bank, the costs of rebuilding Ukraine are estimated at $486 billion over the next decade, which is approximately 2.8 times the nominal GDP in 2023 and significantly exceeds previous estimates.
"More than 6.4 million people have fled the country. Loss of jobs, incomes and assets, as well as high inflation, have reversed 15 years of poverty reduction," the World Bank notes.
The World Bank forecasts that Ukraine's GDP will grow by 3.2% in 2024, 6.5% in 2025, and 5.1% in 2026.
Global economic forecast
The World Bank stated that higher-than-expected U.S. economic performance prompted an upward revision of the global growth forecast for 2024 by 0.2 percentage points but warned that overall output would remain significantly below pre-pandemic levels.
The World Bank projects global GDP growth of 2.6% in 2024 and 2.7% in 2025 and 2026, which is significantly below the average global rate of 3.1% for the decade preceding COVID-19.
It should be noted that international financial organizations expect Ukraine's economy to grow by about 3% in 2024. These forecasts were published by the IMF, the World Bank, the EBRD, and the European Commission.