Kimi Antonelli has been a strong contender to replace Lewis Hamilton at Mercedes right from the outset. Toto Wolff has known since the winter that the seven-time world champion would be joining Ferrari for 2025.
Naturally, his top target was the reigning title-holder Max Verstappen. Wolff has hoped that the instability at Red Bull, which saw Adrian Newey resign, would prompt Verstappen to consider leaving.
But while the Dutchman may be on the market ahead of the 2026 regulation changes, he won’t be moving just yet. He could be surrendering a shot at the world championship next year if he joins a Mercedes team that has lagged behind for much of 2024.
Wolff has always seen Verstappen as an aspirational target, which is why he’s also been exploring other avenues. Nico Rosberg says he held extensive talks with the manager of Fernando Alonso before the Spaniard signed an extension at Aston Martin.
Mercedes also made an offer to Carlos Sainz, the victim of Hamilton’s Ferrari move. However, Sainz wasn’t prepared to accept an initial one-year contract.
There were tentative talks too with Alex Albon, but they didn’t progress much further and the Thai driver is staying at Williams. All of this has played into the hands of 17-year-old academy driver Antonelli, currently in his first year of F2.
Kimi Antonelli to partner George Russell at Mercedes in 2025
According to German publication sport.de, Mercedes have formally decided to hire Antonelli as George Russell’s teammate for the 2025 season. He will be the first rookie they have fielded since their return to F1 in 2010.
While the Silver Arrows have publicly maintained that the search is ongoing, they have viewed the Italian as their man ‘for weeks’. After impressing the team in an extensive private testing programme, he’s been ‘given the nod’.
Initially, the plan was to place him at Williams for a year first, following a similar path to Russell. This would have given him the opportunity to develop away from the spotlight under the leadership of former Mercedes strategist James Vowles.
Williams even requested the opportunity to field Antonelli in an FP1 session prior to his 18th birthday. But it seems Vowles has now looked elsewhere for his 2025 line-up.
F1 Oversteer understands that the team are 90% sure they will sign Sainz alongside Albon. While this still hasn’t been ‘confirmed’, it effectively closes the door on Antonelli and accelerates his ascent to Mercedes.
Why Antonelli could lose Mercedes seat within 12 months
Antonelli is generating a huge amount of excitement at Mercedes. Jacques Villeneuve believes promoting him is an ego-based decision, but they genuinely see him as the next Verstappen or Charles Leclerc.
Antonelli has won four single-seater titles in the last two seasons and reportedly out-paced Russell at a recent test at Silverstone, though Mercedes have denied this. He may only be sixth in F2 right now, but that’s still a solid start for a debutant.
But there’s a ‘headache’ on the horizon for Wolff. In 12 months’ time, it’s feasible that Verstappen is up for grabs and he has to choose between Russell and Antonelli.
Given Russell’s greater experience and pedigree – his podium in Canada last weekend was the 12th of his career – it may be the teenager who loses out. But equally, Wolff might decide that Antonelli has a higher long-term ceiling than a driver who has previously faltered at big moments, not least in Montreal.
Mercedes won’t hesitate to sign Verstappen, even if it means making a brutal call. They will field two academy graduates for the first time in 2025, but it could be a short-lived partnership.
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