What a January! Jim Harbaugh won a college football championship at Michigan, then trotted away to the NFL, taking a job as head coach of the Chargers.
What might he do with the Chargers, who definitely underachieved in 2023 after making the playoffs the season before? Harbaugh has Justin Herbert to compete in an star quarterback-heavy AFC. But does LA have a strong enough supporting cast around Herbert to move back to a playoff contender?
Cynthia Frelund, an analytics expert for NFL Network, predicts that the Chargers will win 8.2 times. That win total ranks 11th amongst AFC teams. But it’s second best among the AFC West squads.
Frelund recently projected the win totals for all 32 league teams. She wrote that the predictions were a result of formula that uses a mixture of stats, history and trends.
“Using the projected 53-man rosters as of May 14, I ran 150,000 simulations for all 272 regular-season games,” she wrote.
She also noted, “Remember, these simulations account for many contextualized data points that have been proven to correlate to wins and losses based on historical football games that were actually played.”
Odds, predictions for LA Chargers in 2024
Frelund writes of the Chargers:
“Despite an early bye (Week 5), the Chargers’ win share increased by 0.2 wins as a result of the 2024 NFL schedule. With a new coach, front office, offensive tackle, WR group, et al, Los Angeles will likely need some time to get everyone on the same page and build a strong rapport.
“The schedule does them some favors in this regard, as their hardest four-game sequence (Bengals, Ravens, at Falcons, at Chiefs) doesn’t hit until mid-November. In addition, their final three games — Broncos, at Patriots, at Raiders — currently rank as the second-most favorable of any AFC team.”
So Frelund believes there’s a chance for the Chargers to finish strong. Herbert missed the final month of last season after he broke his index finger. The injury came a few months after the quarterback signed a hefty contract that pays him $52.5 million a year.
Harbaugh does have a specific way of coaching football. He likes to emphasize a good running game with play action. The Chargers lost starting running back Austin Ekeler in free agency. But they signed Gus Edwards of the Ravens. Coincidentally, Edwards played for Harbaugh’s older brother, John. LA also picked up J.K. Dobbins, another Ravens running back. Dobbins, a former second-round pick out of Ohio State, missed all but the first game of last season after Achilles surgery.
Then Harbaugh went for the fundamentals at the top of the draft. He selected former Notre Dame offensive lineman Joe Alt with the fifth pick of the first round. Most draft analysts considered Alt as the top offensive tackle available.
The passing game may take some time. The Chargers lost top receiver Keenan Allen to free agency. Ekeler was No. 2 amongst LA receivers. The team does have Joshua Palmer returning. They’ll need better production out of Quention Johnston, last year’s first-round selection. Plus, they selected former Georgia receiver Ladd McConkey with the second pick of the second round.
The Chargers defense still features two of the better pass rushers in the NFL in Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack.
Overall, Frelund predicted that the Chiefs will continue to rule the AFC. She projected that the two-time defending Super Bowl champions will win 10.9 games. Then, it’s the Bengals, with Joe Burrow returning from wrist surgery. Frelund thinks 10.5 wins for Cincinnati. The Texans will come in third with 10.3 victories, according to the models.
Frelund’s formula then has the Dolphins and Ravens tied at 10.2 wins. The Bills are sixth at 10 victories followed by the Jets at 9.6. Among the AFC West, the Chiefs are first, way ahead of everybody else. The Chargers are second, followed by the Raiders (6.4) and Broncos (5.7).
You can check out all of Frelund’s predictions here. And for all of On3.com’s NFL coverage, click it here.
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