By Clare Nuttall in Glasgow
The recent European Parliament elections resulted in gains for far-right and rightwing parties across Europe, sparking concerns about the future of EU enlargement. While centrist groups retain a majority in the new European Parliament, the growing influence of populist, nationalist and Eurosceptic parties could complicate efforts to integrate new member states in the bloc, analysts have warned.
The elections followed a reinvigoration of the enlargement process sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which prompted EU leaders to renewed efforts to integrate the countries on the periphery of the 27-member bloc. Previously the enlargement process had stagnated, with Croatia being the last country to join more than a decade ago.
In the June European Parliament elections, far-right parties came first in five countries and second or third in another five, primarily at the expense of liberal and green parties.
In France, the far-right's victory led President Emmanuel Macron to call for snap elections. Similarly, in Germany, the governing coalition trailed behind conservatives and the far-right, further weakening Chancellor Olaf Scholz. These shifts in the EU's two largest countries are likely to impact the union's functioning significantly. There was also a strong showing for rightwing parties in countries such as Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania, even though centrist parties prevailed.
At European level, the European People's Party (EPP), Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and Renew Europe have maintained their dominance in the parliament.
Despite this, the long-term trend indicates increasing support for rightwing and far-right parties. At the same time, parties closer to the centre have helped to normalise far-right parties by adopting their ideas and rhetoric, as pointed out by London-based think-tank Chatham House on June 11.
At national level, the far right is already part of governing coalitions in Finland, Sweden, the Netherlands, Italy and Croatia, while Austria's far right leads in polls ahead of national elections. This trend is evident in Portugal and Slovakia as well, where far-right parties have gained significant support. The outcome of France’s snap general election remains to be seen, but the European Parliament vote shows a weakened position for Macron’s Renew coalition.
These developments at national level in turn will have an impact on policy-making at EU level, says Chatham House: “This trend affects the composition and working of the European Council and the Council of Ministers, the bodies where member states’ heads of government ministers and national ministers respectively come together and set the high-level policy agenda and adopts EU laws.'
Enlargement at risk
There are also implications beyond the borders of the EU. The report by Chatham House highlights the long-term threat to EU enlargement posed by the rise of far-right parties. 'Enlargement may not be a main campaign issue, but the surge in votes for these [rightwing and far-right] parties points to ambivalence at best – opposition at worst – to EU enlargement,' the report states.
Public support for Ukraine, one of the new EU candidate countries since 2022, joining the EU is lowest in countries where far-right parties hold significant sway, including Austria, France, Hungary and Slovakia.
More broadly, parties like the Dutch Freedom Party (PVV), France’s National Rally (RN), Austria's Freedom Party (FPO) and Germany's AfD remain sceptical about EU enlargement.
This may be a problem in particular for Ukraine, with the strong performance for parties linked to Russia, notably France’s RN, says the European Policy Centre (EPC) in a new paper published after the European Parliament elections.
“An RN victory, not least due to Le Pens’ ties to the Kremlin, would underline Ukraine’s war effort, at a time when Kyiv is struggling on the battlefield and unpredictable US elections loom. Furthermore, it also risks derailing efforts to reinvigorate EU Enlargement Policy. With the EU’s role in the world weakening, getting it right on Ukraine remains crucial for Ukraine’s very survival as a state, and the EU’s security,” wrote Amanda Paul, deputy head of EPC’s Europe in the World Programme and senior policy analyst, and Lev Zinchenko, programme assistant, Europe in the World Programme.
There are some exceptions, as pointed out in the Chatham House report, among them Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) party, which views Ukraine’s membership as crucial for its national security. Meanwhile, Hungary’s ruling Fidesz party advocates for the accession of Serbia and Bosnia & Herzegovina, a policy linked to its close ties with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Milorad Dodik, president of Bosnia’s Republika Srpska. However, neither Fidesz nor PiS performed well in the European Parliament elections.
The composition of the European Parliament is not an urgent issue for enlargement, however. “Accession to the EU is a multi-year process, and it is unlikely that any of the candidate countries will be ready to join the EU in the next five years. For enlargement-related issues that do require a vote in the European Parliament, it is unlikely that far-right MEPs would be able to rally a majority to swing a vote – especially given the divisions among far right groupings on this issue … But it might make debates about issues like financial assistance for enlargement-related reforms more difficult,” says the Chatham House report.
Opposition to enlargement is concentrated among the extreme right Identity and Democracy (I&D). Its MEPs have voted against or abstained on enlargement-related resolutions in the European Parliament, while MEPs from the more moderate rightwing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) tend to vote in favour.
An important issue for enlargement, namely internal reforms to the EU, could also be held up, as pointed out by the European Policy Centre (EPC) in a new paper published after the European Parliament elections.
“The previous European Parliament (2019-2024) adopted a series of reports advocating for the democratic reform of the Union … But the 2024 election results risk stalling this momentum; EU reform has been largely overlooked in nationally focused campaigns, and a more fragmented Parliament with a stronger far-right will struggle to drive the necessary changes,” said Johannes Greubel, head of the EPC’s Transnationalisation Programme and Connecting Europe project leader.
Further concerns are raised about whether a shift to the right within the EU could lead to the bloc no longer acting as a force for democratisation within would-be members. Berta López Domènech, a junior policy analyst at the EPC, warns that the European Parliament’s “ability to advocate for democracy at the heart of the EU accession process will be weakened”.
She adds: 'The growth at the EU and member states’ level of the reactionary right-wing forces that reject democracy as the cornerstone of the EU accession process can shift its direction.”
There have already been frequent clashes between some of the eastern EU members, most notably Hungary, with fellow EU leaders over the bloc’s liberal values. This now risks being repeated on a larger scale.
As the EU grapples with internal fragmentation and growing polarisation, highlighted by the recent European Parliament election results, the path to enlargement remains fraught with challenges.
