The Conservatives are facing a total wipeout in Norfolk at next month’s election, with no MPs elected to Westminster for the first time in the party’s history, according to a shocking new poll.
The survey, by respected polling firm Survation, indicates a political revolution is under way in a region that has long been considered ‘true blue’.
It predicts that Norfolk and Waveney will return a total of eight Labour MPs, two from Reform and one Liberal Democrat.
Among the defeated Tories will be former prime minister Liz Truss, in South West Norfolk, and ex-science minister George Freeman, in Mid Norfolk, with the poll predicting they will see their respective majorities of 26,195 and 22,594 overturned.
Both constituencies have returned Tories for generations and the result, if it comes to pass, would be the first time since the Conservative party was formed after the Great Reform Act of 1832 that it has not had a single MP in the county.
Survation’s survey, which was published on June 15, is based on so-called MRP analysis, or multilevel regression and post-stratification analysis.
This is a modern modelling technique which combines very large polls with other sources of information, such as census data and local level of support for parties in the constituency.
The poll will make devastating reading for the Conservatives, who have struggled to close the gap in national polls since Rishi Sunak called the election.
Last month’s election for the Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner gave an early clue of their possible local fortunes after Labour topped its first county-wide poll in generations, with Sarah Taylor defeating Tory candidate Giles Orpen-Smellie.
The Survation survey predicts victories for Reform in Great Yarmouth, where Rupert Lowe is standing for the party, and North West Norfolk, for Phil Walton.
It suggests the Liberal Democrat Steffan Aquarone will take North Norfolk from Tory incumbent Duncan Baker.
However, the survey suggests the result will be extremely close in several Norfolk and Waveney seats, giving Conservatives hope that they may yet improve their fortunes.
SURVATION PREDICTION:
North West Norfolk – Reform
Labour: 26.7pc
Conservatives: 24.7pc
Liberal Democrats: 10pc
Green Party: 4.1pc
Reform: 34.5pc
Other: 0pc
South West Norfolk – Labour
Labour: 35.2pc
Conservatives: 33.5pc
Liberal Democrats: 5.3pc
Green Party: 6.8pc
Reform: 13.2pc
Other: 6.1pc
Mid-Norfolk – Labour
Labour: 36.9pc
Conservatives: 32.5pc
Liberal Democrats: 10.8pc
Green Party: 0.7pc
Reform: 19.1pc
Other: 0pc
Broadland and Fakenham – Labour
Labour: 33.6pc
Conservatives: 30.1pc
Liberal Democrats: 12.5pc
Green Party: 11.6pc
Reform: 12.3pc
Other: 0pc
North Norfolk – Liberal Democrats
Labour: 16.9pc
Conservatives: 29.2pc
Liberal Democrats: 31.5pc
Green Party: 0.5pc
Reform: 21.9pc
Other: 0pc
Great Yarmouth – Reform
Labour: 32.8pc
Conservatives: 25.4pc
Liberal Democrats: 2.8pc
Green Party: 3pc
Reform: 33.8pc
Other: 2.3pc
Lowestoft – Labour
Labour: 39.8pc
Conservatives: 26.9pc
Liberal Democrats: 7pc
Green Party: 4.1pc
Reform: 22.4pc
Other: 0pc
Waveney Valley – Labour
Labour: 30.1pc
Conservatives: 25.4pc
Liberal Democrats: 5.8pc
Green Party: 14.3pc
Reform: 22.7pc
Other: 1.8pc
South Norfolk – Labour
Labour: 33.8pc
Conservatives: 27.9pc
Liberal Democrats: 7.8pc
Green Party: 11.8pc
Reform: 17.5pc
Other: 1.3pc
Norwich North – Labour
Labour: 54.2pc
Conservatives: 25.1pc
Liberal Democrats: 3.3pc
Green Party: 5pc
Reform: 10.5pc
Other: 1.9pc
Norwich South – Labour
Labour: 53.1pc
Conservatives: 16.2pc
Liberal Democrats: 3.9pc
Green Party: 17.1pc
Reform: 6.6pc
Other: 3.1pc