When it comes to impacting the 12-team College Football Playoff picture, Tennessee will be involved in three of the biggest game this season according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.
The three games are Tennessee’s trip to Oklahoma in Week 4, Alabama at Tennessee in Week 8 and Tennessee at Georgia in Week 12. ESPN picked the “highest leverage games” based on how much “they affect the postseason picture
“The FPI simulations have a feature called ‘leverage,’” ESPN’s Neil Paine wrote, “which measures the average change in probability (whether that be national title odds, playoff odds, conference title odds, etc.) for both teams depending on whether they win or lose a given game.”
Ohio State at Penn State, Michigan at Ohio State and Missouri at Alabama were the three games that topped the list. Alabama at Tennessee was fifth, with 35.6% leverage.
Tennessee’s game at Oklahoma was ninth at 34.2% leverage and Tennessee-Georgia was 10th at 34.1%.
Vols ranked No. 9 overall in ESPN’s Football Power Index
Tennessee came in at No. 9 overall in ESPN’s first FPI update for the 2024 season, with a projected record of 8.6-3.5. The Vols have a 95.4% chance to win six games or more and a 36.9% chance to make the 12-team College Football Playoff.
“Tennessee’s ranking more closely resembles that of its 2022 breakout campaign,” Paine wrote, “than 2023, when they came back to Earth”.
The FPI gives Tennessee a 5.5% chance to win the SEC, a 6.0% chance to make the national championship game and a 2.7% chance to win the national title.
On3’s Andy Staples last week projected the Vols to be a No. 11 seed in the College Football, predicting a matchup between Tennessee and No. 6 Oregon in Eugene in the opening round in December.
“This is a case of where one win, one loss (during the season) probably makes a big difference,” Staples said. “Like the difference between Tennessee having to go on the road here and Oregon hosting is probably going to be one game in the record.”
Kickoff times, kickoff windows for Tennessee this season
Kickoff times and TV information for four Tennessee games this season have been announced, while kickoff windows are set for the other eight.
The season-opener against Chattanooga on August 31 will be a 12:45 p.m. Eastern Time start, the N.C. State game on September 7 in Charlotte is set for 7:30 p.m. ET, Kent State on September 14 will kick at 7:45 p.m. ET and the UTEP game on November 23 will be a 1 p.m. ET start.
The Chattanooga and Kent State games will be televised by SEC Network, the N.C. State game will be on ABC and UTEP will be an ESPN+/SEC Network+ streaming game.
The SEC and ESPN last week announced kickoff windows — early, afternoon, night or flex — across the league.
Early games will start between Noon and 1 p.m. Afternoon games are between 3:30 and 4:30 p.m. and night games will be between 6 and 8 p.m. Flex games could fall between 3:30-4:30 or 6-8.
Tennessee’s flex games include Oklahoma (September 21), Arkansas (September 28), Florida (October 5) and Alabama (October 12). Night games will be Kentucky (November 2) and Mississippi State (November 9) and the Vanderbilt game on November 30 will be in the early window.
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