China could occupy Taiwan without a single shot by using several alternative options to blockade the island, according to the website of the American Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Analysts have noted that in recent years, China has significantly increased pressure on the island. Today, Chinese military ships and aircraft are active around Taiwan almost daily, raising fears of the tension escalating into a direct military conflict.
However, while part of the world is focused on the threat of an open Chinese invasion, Beijing might employ a range of mechanisms to "coerce, punish, or annex Taiwan."
According to experts, China could implement a "gray zone" quarantine not under military command but using the coast guard and other enforcement agencies.
"Rather than sealing off the island, a quarantine would aim to demonstrate China’s ability to exert control over Taiwan. China does not even need to entirely surround the island to impose a quarantine," the experts believe.
Analysts are convinced that even with a limited maritime quarantine, Chinese forces could block the operations of one or two key ports, creating a serious problem for Taiwan.
However, they point out that such potential scenarios receive little attention.
"In the short term, a quarantine is more likely than an invasion or a military blockade. It also would generate greater uncertainty in terms of how Taiwan and the international community can effectively respond," the report states.
Threat of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan
The island of Taiwan considers itself a separate state and, since 2022, has pursued closer ties and active cooperation with Western countries.
Beijing, on the other hand, views the island as its territory, labels the country's authorities as separatists, and threatens military invasion and occupation. The United States has declared its intention to assist Taiwan militarily in the event of a Chinese invasion, increasing the risk of direct confrontation between the two global powers.
At the end of May, following the inauguration of Taiwan's newly elected President Lai Ching-te, China conducted military exercises simulating bomber attacks.
In early June, Beijing accused the US of creating misunderstandings by supporting Taiwan.
Recently, Lai Ching-te stated that China considers the annexation and "elimination" of Taiwan its great national cause.
The Taiwanese government is deepening cooperation with partners and the US in hopes of deterring a Chinese invasion.