This week YouGov published its second 2024 election MRP poll, which shows the Conservatives on track to secure the party’s lowest seat total in history.
Nationally, pollsters project that Labour will win a record-breaking 425 seats, up by 125 on their 2019 total. Meanwhile, the Conservatives will see their number drop to just 108.
Across the Advertiser area the new poll shows some significant changes fromthe first MRP poll just a few weeks ago.
In Newark, the Conservative Robert Jenrick is now predicted to lose the seat he has held for the past 10 years.
YouGov now shows the Conservatives taking 33.4% of the vote share, falling behind Labour who lead with 35.1%. It comes after the first MRP poll predicted Newark to be the most marginal seat in the country, with both major parties tied on 38.8% and Mr Jenrick narrowly holding onto the seat.
Interestingly Reform UK are also now predicted to take 21.4% of the vote share in Newark, compared to around 11% just a few weeks about.
With just under two weeks of campaigning left before election day, the race in Newark is still in the balance.
Elsewhere, in the Sherwood Forest constituency the Conservatives have now fallen to third place, with 26.3% of the vote share, behind Reform’s 26.5%.
It would mark a significant change for the area in which the Conservative Mark Spencer established a 16,000 vote majority at the 2019 General Election.
Labour are predicted to take the seat with 36.7% of the vote share.
Meanwhile in Rushcliffe, the Tories continue to slip further behind Labour in another big political shift.
Labour is expected to comfortably gain the seat with 45.3% of the vote, to the Conservatives’ 27.4%.
YouGov’s estimated seat projections are based on modelled responses from more than 58,000 adults in England, Scotland and Wales.
It is important to note that the algorithm used to predict polls across England is also based on the five major political parties; Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Reform and Green.
The poll predictions do not fully take into account the impact that Independent candidates and smaller parties could have on the result.
The UK General Election is scheduled to take place on July 4.
The candidates confirmed for the Newark constituency are (listed alphabetically):
• Michael Ackroyd - Green Party
• Saj Ahmad - Labour
• Adrian Amer - Independent
• Matthew Darrington - English Democrats
• Lyn Galbraith - Independent
• Robert Jenrick - Conservative
• Robert Palmer - Reform UK
• Collan Siddique - Workers Party of Britain
• David Watts - Liberal Democrats
The candidates confirmed for the Sherwood Forest constituency are (listed alphabetically):
• David Dobbie - Liberal Democrats
• Sheila Greatrex-White - Green Party
• Helen Rose O'Hare - Reform UK
• Mark Spencer - Conservative
• Jeremy Paul Spry - Independent
• Lee Waters - Independent
• Michelle Welsh -Labour
The candidates confirmed for the Rushcliffe constituency are (listed alphabetically):
• Ruth Edwards - Conservative
• James Grice - Reform UK
• Lynn Irving - Independent
• Richard Mallender - Green Party
• James Naish -Labour
• Harbant Kaur Sehra - Independent
• Gregg Webb - Liberal Democrats
