Hungary's EU presidency: Can Orbán influence the direction of the EU?

Viktor Orban, Prime Minister of Hungary (R), gives a speech during his visit to Baden-Wuerttemberg in the New Palace. Christoph Schmidt/dpa

From July 1, Hungary will hold the EU presidency until the end of 2024. The country, led by nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, has a reputation of repeatedly blocking EU decisions and will be closely watched throughout the presidency.

While each EU country fights tooth and nail for its own interests, when they take over the Council presidency they are meant to put their politics aside to take on a more neutral role.

During a press conference on June 18 in Budapest, Hungarian Minister for European Affairs János Bóka stressed that the country will be "an honest intermediary."

Looking back: what has the outgoing Belgian presidency achieved?

Belgium took over in January, with the European Parliament elections on the horizon. This provided a clear overriding objective: to wrap up as many legislative files as possible.

By the time the parliament was dissolved at the end of April, more than 60 files had been given the green light. These included the new asylum and migration pact and a package on budgetary surveillance.

It helped that some of these files had been negotiated successfully by the preceding Spanish presidency.

After the June 6–9 elections, the Belgian presidency managed to find the necessary majority to approve the controversial Nature Restoration Law, not least due to the unexpected backing of Austrian Environment Minister Leonore Gewessler.

The law had been at the centre of long and heated debates in both Brussels and national capitals.

In addition, Hungary's upcoming EU presidency gave an impetus to boost support measures for Ukraine, before Budapest took over with the potential to apply the brakes.

Belgium managed to find consensus on new financial support for Ukraine, including via profits from frozen assets of the Russian Central Bank. EU membership negotiations with Ukraine also started this week.

Furthermore, the 13th and 14th sanctions packages against Russia have now been adopted, with the latter targeting Russia's multi-billion dollar liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector for the first time.

Hungary wants to "Make Europe Great Again"

The Hungarian government, headed by Orbán, has adopted the motto "Make Europe Great Again," eerily similar to the slogan with which former US president Donald Trump triumphed in the 2016 elections.

"Europe is experiencing an exceptional situation, with problems such as a war in the neighbourhood or immigration," said Budapest's EU affairs minister, Bóka, noting that his country would help broker solutions.

Hugary's EU ambassador Bálint Ódor stressed: "It will be a presidency like any other. We will be honest mediators, we will try to cooperate sincerely with EU countries and institutions."

EU politicians – long used to blockades from Budapest – remain sanguine about the threat of Hungary gumming up the EU system and say they have been war-gaming ways around an obstinate Budapest if needed.

The country takes the reins amid the aftermath of the EU elections, meaning that much of the next six months will be taken up with installing a new European Parliament and executive arm.

Diplomats say the presidency only affords limited power, noting that if other member states want an issue discussed they can override the presidency and vote it onto the table.

"Even if the presidency doesn't like it, you can put an item on the agenda," one senior diplomat said on condition of anonymity. "So I'm not afraid of Hungary."

Seven priorities for the next six months

Hungary established seven priorities for its presidency: improving competitiveness, common defence and external border protection, as well as advancing enlargement and promoting cohesion policies, agriculture and addressing demographic problems.

Furthermore, Hungary expects progress in lifting Schengen land border controls for Bulgaria and Romania and in the fight against anti-Semitism.

The country also wants to promote discussions on topics linked to higher education and the protection of cultural heritage.

EU enlargement will be a key theme for Budapest, but with a view to the Western Balkans, rather than Ukraine.

"When it comes to the Western Balkans, we would like as much progress as possible. We aim to open and close as many negotiation clusters as possible. We need to speed this process up," Ódor told journalists in Brussels.

The Hungarian presidency wants to hold an EU summit in the region with the Western Balkans states – Serbia, Kosovo, Albania, North Macedonia, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Montenegro. All countries have candidate status, apart from Kosovo whose independence is not fully recognized by all EU states.

The EU has so far opened accession negotiations with Serbia, Albania, North Macedonia and Montenegro. In March, the bloc conditionally agreed to open formal talks with Bosnia-Herzegovina.

According to Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto, Hungary's goal in the next three months is to initiate negotiations with Bosnia-Herzegovina and hold the first intergovernmental talks.

Szijjarto noted that some member states publicly support enlargement but speak differently behind closed doors. He has asked all Hungarian diplomats to actively lobby for the opening of accession negotiations with Sarajevo.

Ukraine's EU accession path could get rockier

European officials and diplomats fret that EU support for Ukraine, in its defence against Russia's all-out invasion, could suffer under Hungary's six-month presidency.

According to Hungarian EU ambassador Ódor, Hungary will not promote Ukraine and Moldova's accession negotiations.

Budapest – Russia's closest ally in the bloc – has repeatedly held up sanctions on Moscow over the war. For the past years it also has blocked the disbursement of EU funds to help arm Ukraine.

The content of this article is based on reporting by AFP, ANSA, Belga, BTA, dpa, EFE, FENA and STA as part of the European Newsroom (enr) project.

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