With the 2024 NBA Draft taking place on Wednesday night, I wanted to discuss players I believe in and players I have questions about. So below, I talk about four players I think will ultimately outperform where they are projected to be drafted, two players I think will underperform where they are projected to be drafted, and two players with clear ability I will take a wait-and-see approach with.
My latest NBA Draft Big Board | NBA Draft Home Page
Four players I am buying on Draft Night
F Ron Holland, G-League Ignite
6-6.5 | 196.8 pounds | 8-8 standing reach | July 2005
2023-24 Stats: 14 games. 33.6 minutes. 20.6 points. 6.6 rebounds. 3.2 assists, 0.7 blocks. 2.5 steals. 44.3% FG. 24.0% 3P. 75.7% FT.
Ron Holland has won at every stop along the way, outside of last year with the G-League Ignite program. Last season the 18-year-old was thrust into a position to be the No. 1 option in a pro league, something he has never been and was not ready for. However, prior to a late injury, Holland figured it out and started consistently producing. Holland flies all over the floor, using instincts, frame, and athleticism to make plays. The shooting will need to come around, but he has the feel to put the ball in the basket and is a willing ball mover.
Throughout his time winning Texas state championships, FIBA gold medals, and Nike EYBL games, Holland has always been the alpha on the floor. His has been the voice you hear and his game has been the one teammates look to to make a play. With that, Holland has always found a way, just like last season with Ignite, when he found his way. I expect that trend to continue in the league.
G Devin Carter, Providence
Profile | 6-2.25 | 193 pounds | 8-2 standing reach | March 2002
2023-24 Stats: 33 games. 35.3 minutes. 19.7 points. 8.7 rebounds. 3.6 assists. 1.8 steals. 1.0 blocks. 47.3% FG. 37.7% 3P. 74.9% FT.
What a season Devin Carter had last year with Providence, earning Big East Player of the Year honors. The question you run into with Carter’s success this season is, was it an outlier? Watching the way Carter made plays, you saw a feel for the game. He made plays on the ball in the pick-and-roll as well as purposeful cutting off the ball. He is competitive and has a natural feel with explosive athleticism.
The outlier skill might be the shooting touch. Carter jumped from sub-30 for two seasons to 37.7 percent on 6.8 attempts per game. He will need to quicken his release and continue to find his balance points. The defense is the skill that he has to hang his hat on. Carter’s athleticism really popped at the NBA Draft Combine as he led the way in max-vert and he set a record in the three-quarter court sprint. He should be able to guard all three perimeter positions early giving him a relatively high floor.
G Stephon Castle, UConn
6-5.5 | 210 pounds | 8-6 standing reach | November 2004
2023-24 Stats: 34 games. 27.0 minutes. 11.1 points. 4.7 rebounds. 2.9 assists. 0.8 steals. 0.5 blocks. 47.2% FG. 26.7% 3P. 75.5% FT.
Stephon Castle is a real connector. The type who elevates the play of everyone on the floor around him. He processes quickly with the ball in his hands and can deliver on-target passes from multiple levels on the court. Castle might also be the best perimeter defender in this draft. What has always shined about Castle, even dating back to his high school days and continuing through the NCAA Tournament run, is that when the lights are the brightest, Castle has shined.
He is a big and physical guard, able to touch the paint and make a play as well as guard all three perimeter positions. Those two factors should get him on the court early in his career. With that said, he is going to have to tighten up his handle and straighten out the jump shot. Castle does run the risk of finding himself in tweener status, not quite a one and not quite enough of a shooter to be a two. That makes the margins thin for him. However, with his ability to defend and process coupled with his reputation as a gamer, there is a notable floor here of an NBA player.
G Bub Carrington, Pittsburgh
6-3.75 | 194.8 pounds | 8-3 standing reach | July 2005
2023-24 Stats: 33 games. 33.2 minutes. 13.8 points. 5.2 rebounds. 4.1 assists. 0.6 steals. 0.2 blocks. 41.2% FG. 32.2% 3P. 78.5% FT.
Bub Carrington is the second-youngest player in the 2024 NBA Draft. The guard showcased his ability to dribble, shoot, and pass throughout the season, and given his age and frame, he has a lot of upside to continue growing into.
With Carrington, he will not be a day-1 guy, like he was at Pittsburgh. In his first collegiate game, Carrington finished with a triple-double. However, he is someone who was 6-foot-1 (in shoes) as a junior in high school. His upward trajectory over the last 24, or so, months has been steep, and it does not look like it is slowing down. The intel with Carrington comes back very positive, coach’s kid, hard worker, etc., and his collegiate production was at its best down the stretch. Players of a similar mold have simply found their way in time.
Two players I am selling on Draft Night
G Rob Dillingham, Kentucky
6-1 | 164.2 pounds | 7-11 standing reach | January 2005
2023-24 Stats: 32 games. 23.3 minutes. 15.2 points. 2.9 rebounds. 3.9 assists. 1.0 steals. 0.1 blocks. 47.5% FG. 44.4% 3P. 79.6% FT.
There is an undeniable electricity that Rob Dillingham brings to the court. His ability to string together dribbles and counters to create space and get a clean look was unparalleled in college last season. He plays fast and he shot the ball at a high clip, both off the bounce and off the catch. The questions start with him as a ball-stopper and decision-maker. In his quest to create space, at times, he can lose sight of what is going on around him. Then defensively he is a negative player lacking the physical tools to hold up at the point of attack and the wherewithal to stay consistently engaged. His ability to self-create is fun to watch, and it is something that could transfer to the league, and his shooting numbers made his scoring hard to ignore. My struggle with Dillingham is how the collective whole translates.
F Matas Buzelis, G-League Ignite
6-8.75 | 197 pounds | 8-9.5 standing reach | October 2004
2023-24 Stats: 26 gmes. 32.0 minutes. 14.3 points. 6.9 rebounds. 1.9 assists. 0.9 steals. 2.1 blocks. 44.5% FG. 27.3% 3P. 67.9% FT.
The interesting aspect with Matas Buzelis is there is a clear pathway to him being a useful NBA piece. With that said, he would need to change his game to get there. Buzelis is a fluid athlete with some sneaky pop. His skill set, for me, is what brings the questions. His handle is not enough for him to play on the perimeter, against perimeter players. He has also never been a consistent shooter with a multi-step load and release. Where this comes into play is if Buzelis is willing to buy into being a skilled five/four, he could find mismatches. With that, he would need to add significant weight and tweak his game. There is some uniqueness in there, given the size and fluidity, and there are building blocks that are quite intriguing. Also, it is worth pointing out that each team Buzelies has played on, dating back to high school and travel ball, has underachieved with him as a featured piece on the perimeter.
Two players I think could go either way
G Reed Sheppard, Kentucky
6-1.75 | 181.6 pounds | 7-9.5 | June 2004
2023-24 Stats: 33 games. 28.9 minutes. 12.5 points. 4.1 rebounds. 4.5 assists. 2.5 steals. 0.7 blocks. 53.6% FG. 52.1% 3P. 83.1% FT.
Is Reed Sheppard an NBA player? Yes, he is. However, there are two sides to the coin for me when evaluating him as a player. The first side of the coin is the numbers. Sheppard was the best shooter in college basketball this season, and it was not really close. He displayed an excellent feel for drifting into soft spots of the defense where he showcased a quick release with excellent balance. The defensive numbers were great as Kentucky allowed him to roam and he used his instincts to be a menace. He saw the floor well and was a nice pitch-ahead passer. The other side of the coin is, what is the archetype? A look across the current NBA, players of his measurements are typically ball-dominant, and players of his skill set are typically two to three inches taller. When Sheppard was asked to be the primary ball handler for Kentucky this season, turnovers became prevalent. This is something that dates back to his high school days as well, seeing the same outcomes on the Adidas 3SSB Circuit, where he played alongside Gabe Cupps, and at the NBPA Top 100 Camp. Can his ability to move the ball and space the floor overcome current NBA archetype trends?
G Isaiah Collier, USC
6-2.5 | 204.6 pounds | 8-1.5 standing reach | October 2004
2023-24 Stats: 27 games. 30.0 minutes. 16.3 points. 2.9 rebounds. 4.3 assists. 1.5 steals. 0.2 blocks. 49.0% FG. 33.8% 3P. 67.3% FT.
Isaiah Collier’s career will be a fascinating case study. No other domestic guard in this NBA Draft class puts pressure on the front of the rim like he does. He has a strong frame, is decisive with the ball, and plays with excellent balance. In high school and travel ball, Collier was an excellent passer. He really carved up the pick-and-roll and showed touch and timing with his quick processing. At USC, Collier took some time adjusting to finding the angles with the speed of the game. While I do buy the passing, the question with him is the shooting. Dating back to high school, Collier has consistently struggled from the free-throw line. Last season at USC, after coming back from injury, he shot almost 3 percent through the final 11 games. Collier is a relentless and aggressive point guard, but how will the shooting play out?
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