By Ewan Murray
Just like that, the Euro 2024 group stage is over.
It brought ecstasy, comedy and the occasional tear - the latter mainly from watching England play. While it was a joy to behold, it's time to turn our attention to the knockout stages.
Before a ball was kicked in Germany, there were a handful of sides given a genuine shot at winning the trophy. Not all have impressed during their opening three matches, but of all the European sides within the top ten of the FIFA rankings, only Croatia failed to make it to the knockout stages.
Having witnessed the events of the group stage, Opta's fabled supercomputer has recalculated the favourites for the Henri Delaunay Cup.
Opta supercomputer predicts Euro 2024 winners
Somehow, somehow, England remain favourites to be crowned Euro 2024 champions. Despite accumulating just five points and scoring just two goals during group matches with Serbia, Denmark and Slovenia, Gareth Southgate's men are handed a 19.12% chance of winning the tournament. The supercomputer clearly knows something we don't, even offering a 38.2% probability of England reaching the final.
Prior to the tournament, France were neck and neck with England as favourites. However, after finishing second in their group with an almost identical record to England's, Les Bleus have plummeted in the supercomputer's estimations. They now boast just a 13.26% chance of glory.
France have been leapfrogged by tournament hosts Germany, who after two wins and a draw during the group phase are now second favourites for the crown. They have been handed a 16.09% chance of success, followed closely by Spain \- the only side to win all three group games. La Roja are yet to even concede and now have a 15.41% shot of winning the whole thing.
Portugal are next in line to the throne and are given a 12.48% chance of repeating their Euro 2016 heroics. Despite defeat to lowest-ranked side Georgia in their final group game, Roberto Martinez's men are streets ahead of sixth-placed favourites Netherlands, who have been given a measly 6.73% chance of a second European crown.
Reigning champions Italy (4.46%) haven't got much hope of retaining their title if the supercomputer is to be trusted, while perennial underachievers Belgium (2.09%) are seemingly less likely to triumph than Austria (3.64%) and Switzerland (2.26%). The fact that Domenico Tedesco's side face France in the last 16 is unlikely to have helped their odds.
At the other end of the spectrum, spare a thought forGeorgia. As mentioned, they toppled Cristiano Ronaldo's Portugal in the group stage, yet are given a 0.13% chance of pulling off the unlikeliest of shocks. With Spain to come in the last 16, they have just a 17.56% chance of making the quarter-finals on their Euros debut.
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This article was originally published on 90min.com as Supercomputer predicts who will win Euro 2024 after group stage ends.
