President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are set to face off Thursday in the first presidential debate of the 2024 general election.
The debate presents significant risks and opportunities for both candidates. Polls indicate a tight race between the 81-year-old incumbent and the 78-year-old former president, with both candidates facing broad unpopularity.
Trump has been convicted of 34 felony counts and faces sentencing on July 11. This week also marked two years since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, a decision Trump has taken credit for, having nominated three justices who voted to eliminate the constitutional right to an abortion.
This has sparked political backlash, even in conservative states.
Trump’s vision for a second term includes prosecuting political enemies and pardoning the January 6 rioters, raising concerns about American democracy and the rule of law.
Biden, on the other hand, must address voter dissatisfaction over his handling of the economy and the US-Mexico border.
Additionally, questions about his stamina and cognitive health to lead for another four years linger. An energetic performance could help alleviate some concerns.
Strategic approaches for the debate
Both candidates will aim to highlight each other’s weaknesses. Biden will likely remind voters why they chose him over Trump in 2020, using Trump’s own words against him, particularly on reproductive rights and democracy.
He may also present new immigration data showing a decline in border encounters since new asylum restrictions took effect, and highlight recent actions to expand citizenship pathways for undocumented residents.
As the presumptive nominees prepare to engage in what promises to be a contentious debate, voters are keen to understand where they stand on crucial issues, particularly tax policy.
Expiring tax breaks and the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017
One of the significant topics likely to be discussed is the impending expiration of the tax breaks enacted via the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA). Without intervention from Congress, several provisions of the TCJA will sunset after 2025.
These provisions include lower federal income tax brackets, an enhanced child tax credit, and higher estate and gift tax exemptions.
The potential expiration of these tax breaks could impact more than 60% of tax filers, leading to increased taxes in 2026, according to the Tax Foundation.
Andrew Lautz, associate director for the Bipartisan Policy Center’s economic policy program, emphasized the importance of this issue.
He expressed hope that both Biden and Trump would “move beyond some of the political rhetoric” to discuss their plans to address the TCJA expirations next year.
The financial implications of extending TCJA provisions
While both campaigns have indicated a desire to renew TCJA provisions for most Americans, there are significant concerns about the financial implications of these extensions.
Amid a growing federal budget deficit, extending the TCJA provisions could add an estimated $4.6 trillion to the deficit over the next decade, as reported by the Congressional Budget Office in May.
Trump’s unpredictable stance on tax policy
Trump’s stance on tax policy remains somewhat unpredictable. Despite his history of advocating for tax cuts, his plans for future tax policy are less clear.
Steve Rosenthal, senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, noted that Trump is a “wild card” on tax policy, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding his approach.
On the other hand, Biden’s tax agenda has been more consistent. He has repeatedly outlined his intentions to raise taxes on the ultra-wealthy and corporations to fund TCJA extensions for those making less than $400,000 annually.
Rosenthal mentioned that there would be “very few surprises from the Biden tax agenda,” as Biden has consistently included these proposals in his yearly budget submissions to Congress.
Debate rules and structure
The debate, hosted by CNN and moderated by Jake Tapper and Dana Bash, will start at 9 pm ET in an Atlanta studio. It will run for 90 minutes with two commercial breaks.
The event will occur without an audience, muting the candidates’ microphones when it’s not their turn to speak to minimize chaos. Independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. did not qualify for the debate under CNN’s criteria.
The format includes no opening statements and a predetermined order for closing statements. Biden’s campaign selected the right podium placement while Trump’s team chose to deliver the final closing argument.
The broader economic context
The debate also comes at a time when the broader economic context is in flux. Higher living costs, a slowdown in post-pandemic spending, and ongoing geopolitical tensions are likely to influence the candidates’ economic policies.
Both Biden and Trump will need to address these challenges convincingly to appeal to undecided voters.
Will the debate impact voter decisions?
A new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research indicates that about six in ten Americans are likely to tune into the debate.
While the nation remains deeply polarized, the debate might clarify choices for some voters and underscore the stakes of the upcoming election.
However, a major gaffe could have lasting repercussions for either candidate, while positive moments will be spun by both campaigns as successes.
The debate’s impact on the polls remains uncertain, but it will undoubtedly shape the narrative as the election approaches.
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