The International Monetary Fund forecasts that the average electricity deficit in Ukraine will be around 10% in 2024, gradually decreasing throughout 2025 and being eliminated by early 2026.
"Overall, data on energy capacity remains strictly controlled in the context of Martial Law, but based on previous consumption and import patterns, severe deficits (up to 30 percent) are likely to arise only in peak hours," the IMF anticipates.
In this scenario, industrial consumers will need to operate below capacity, while household consumption will be restricted through scheduled outages, particularly in winter. Additional attacks will further destabilize the energy system, notes the IMF.
"Energy deficits are expected to persist throughout 2024 and 2025, although their scale will be limited by the resilient energy system," IMF forecasts.
Estimates of the energy deficit include repairs to renewable capacities (including some CHP of certain thermal power plants), a modest increase in European imports, and a deficit resulting from the necessary scheduled maintenance of the NPP in the 2-4 quarters of 2024.
"Moreover, household tariff increases of 60 percent on average as of June 1 should also incentivize changes in consumption patterns and provide further revenue to energy companies," the memorandum states.
According to the fund, energy imports from the European ENTSO-E network are currently limited to 1.7 GW during normal times, with an additional 0.3 GW to cover emergency shortages and thus cannot fully cover lost capacity. While there may be some potential to increase electricity imports to cover energy deficits during peak demand, significant short-term increases in electricity imports from the EU are unlikely due to infrastructure constraints in neighboring countries.
According to the IMF, large-scale attacks on the Ukrainian energy sector from late March to May seriously damaged or destroyed nearly half of the generating capacity (over 9 GW). Several thermal (CHP) and hydroelectric power stations (HPP) in the Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia regions were completely destroyed, while others suffered varying degrees of damage. Overall, the destroyed capacity is estimated at more than 80% for CHPs and over 40% for HPPs.
The NBU (National Bank of Ukraine) is currently maintaining its April forecast for the electricity deficit in Ukraine in 2024-2025 at 5%.
