France's far-right National Rally (RN) appears to hold a clear lead in the first round of the snap nationwide elections for control of the lower house of parliament, according to first projections.
President Emmanuel Macron's centrist Ensemble (Together) alliance, led by his Renaissance party, looked to be stumbling to a third-place finish in the first round of voting, according to the preliminary results reported by broadcasters TF1 and France 2 shortly after the polls closed on Sunday.
The RN, alongside its far-right allies, gained 34% to 34.2% of the vote. The left-wing New Popular Front alliance was in second place with 28.1% to 29.1%.
Macron's Ensemble came third with 20.3% to 21.5%, according to the broadcasters.
How many seats the blocs will get in the National Assembly will only be decided in run-off elections on July 7.
The result is almost certainly a bitter defeat for Macron, who had gambled that early elections would increase the relative majority held by his party and its allies in the lower house.
That now seems extremely unlikely. If, according to forecasts, neither camp wins an absolute majority, France would face tough negotiations to form a coalition government.
The security forces in France have prepared for the possibility of unrest in some of the country's major cities on the evening of the first round of voting.
Initial forecasts project that Marine Le Pen's right-wing populists and their allies could become the strongest force in the lower house with 230 to 280 seats. However, they could fall short of an absolute majority with 289 seats.
The hard left could also make gains and reach 125 to 200 seats. Macron's supporters are in danger of dropping to just 60 to 100 seats.
However, it is difficult to say exactly how the seats will be distributed.
Before the second round of voting, the parties can still forge local alliances that will influence the outcome of the election.
Candidates securing an absolute majority in the first round are elected to the assembly, but in most constituencies the victor will emerge only after the second round on July 7.
Possible trouble for Macron
Macron called the snap election after National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen, made large gains in elections to the European Parliament at the beginning of this month.
Macron's term runs through 2027 and his office is not at stake, but the results could have major implications for the remainder of his term and reshape French politics.
If the RN secures a majority in the 577-member National Assembly, Macron will be compelled to appoint a prime minister from its ranks to secure a stable Cabinet.
Such an outcome would have serious consequences.
The National Assembly is one of two French chambers of parliament. It is involved in legislation and can topple the government with a vote of no confidence.
If a bloc other than Macron's centrist camp were to win an absolute majority, Macron would de facto be forced to appoint a prime minister from its ranks. There would then be a so-called cohabitation.
Macron's power would shrink significantly and the prime minister would gain relative power.
The right-wing nationalists are explicitly aiming to win the election and assume government responsibility. RN leader Bardella is set to become prime minister, replacing Macron's incumbent Attal.
Europe looks on
The election is being followed with interest in Brussels and Berlin.
German businesses are concerned about the consequences of the election if the extreme right or the extreme left come to power.
"When analysing the economic policy announcements of the right and the left, German and French companies come to the same conclusion: France's attractiveness would suffer," said Patrick Brandmaier, managing director of the Franco-German Chamber of Industry and Commerce, in Paris.
Macron's second and final term in office ends in 2027. A sharp decline in support for his Renaissance-led bloc is certain to limit his effectiveness.
National Rally's Le Pen is seen as a serious contender in the next presidential election.
