Nate Oats has brought an incredibly exciting brand of basketball down to Alabama. They’ve earned a reputation as a run and gun team which, if all goes according to the game plan, is exactly how the Crimson Tide want it on every possession.
Oats broke down their style of play during a recent interview with Mark Gottfried. In his explanation, he noted how the best offense often comes early on in the shot clock. That’s why he wants ‘Bama to get a quick look if it’s there, especially if it’s from three with a good shooter taking it.
“If you look – and we’ve done the studies on it. We chart it. We’ve got what we call an analytics box score. Like, everybody knows what a box score is but we’ve got like a way, way deeper one. We chart when we get our first shot up, whether it’s the first six seconds of the shot clock, the second six, the third six,” Oats explained. “Now, it’s not every game but, if you look over the course of the year, the most efficient part of the shot clock is the first six seconds. Now, a lot of times you can’t get a good shot in the first six. But, if you can? Shoot.”
“Like, I tell our guys an open three is an open three. I don’t care if it’s three seconds off the clock or 23 seconds off the clock,” said Oats. “Like, if you’re a good shooter and you’re open from three? Shoot it.”
Oats understands that his approach isn’t what you normally see in the college game. That has led him to have to break his players, especially transfers from other programs, out of habits that don’t fit them.
Simply put, Alabama wants the first look from distance that they can get. So long as it fits the criteria that they’re looking for on their data, Oats and the staff are fine by it.
“There’s numerous times where, you know, especially with the transfer portal, they’re used to playing in a system where they walk it up. It’s very slow. If you haven’t gotten it in the post, you better not shoot a three. We’ll pass up an open three and, five or 10 seconds later, you turn the ball over. I’m like, even if you miss the three? Like, you’ve got a chance at an (offensive) board,” Oats said.
“I’ve already been through this with our guys. We’ve had one week. Expected value on a shot – like what’s the expected value? Like, you may miss it. We may get zero this possession. But, if the expected value on that shot is 1.2? Like, we’re good. Like, we’re going to win 90% of the games if we get all of our shots with a 1.2 or higher expected value,” said Oats. “You’re a 40% shooter, you take a three, and the expected value is 1.2 whether there’s three seconds off the clock or 23? We’re taking it with three seconds off the clock.”
Oats has spent five seasons in Tuscaloosa and has posted a Top-25 offense in each one. That includes three in the Top-10 including the No. 1 offense this past season.
Their average of 82.6 ppg. has much of it that comes from behind the arc. His teams have posted 10.3 threes per game, with three finishes in the top-five, at a rate of 30 attempts per game, which had all five seasons in the Top-10 and four in the top-five. That averages out to a team statistic of 34.4% from three.
’23-’24 was actually Alabama’s best finish yet from three as an overall unit. They made 11.2, second-most in the nation, on 29.9 attempts, which was fourth in the country, for the 20th-best percentage at 37.3%. That led to the top offense this year in college basketball, 25 wins, and the school’s first-ever appearance in the Final Four.
Oats just does the math when it comes to his offense. As he added, though, it also doesn’t hurt to play a way that fans love to come watch and support as well.
“It’s fun,” said Oats. “Like you said, you’re a fan. You’ve been in basketball your whole life. We’re packing Coleman out.”
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