Voters in Kent head to the ballot booths tomorrow as pollsters agree there could be a major clear-out of Tory MPs.
Three polling organisations, who have all conducted major surveys involving tens of thousands of electors, agreed Labour will sweep the boards across the county.
A surge in Labour support, the rise of Reform UK as a party of protest and tactical voting are likely to add pressure to the Conservatives’ unpopularity nationally.
YouGov has given Kent Tories a crumb of comfort by indicating a slightly better showing - winning five seats compared to the tally of 16 in 2019 - than other pollsters.
They are Maidstone and Malling, Herne Bay and Sandwich, Tonbridge, Sevenoaks and the new constituency of Weald of Kent.
However, Survation does not predict the survival of Herne Bay and Sandwich.
Perhaps the biggest upset is anticipated in Tunbridge Wells where the Liberal Democrat challenger Mike Martin is on course to capture Tory Greg Clark’s former seat, according to Electoral Calculus.
The “bellwether” seat of Dartford - which acts as an accurate indicator of the nation’s overall voting intention \- is due to go from blue to red, according to most major pollsters.
The Tories currently hold 16 of the 17 seats, albeit that the former Tory MP for Dover and Deal, Natalie Elphicke, defected to Labour before PM Rishi Sunak went to the country in late May.
Weald of Kent, one of the largest constituencies in the south of England with an electorate of more than 75,000, has been added to reflect the growing population of Kent.
It has been earmarked as “one to watch” after Labour have shown a late rally in the polls, cutting Electoral Calculus’ assessment of the Conservatives’ chance of winning from around 85% to 49%. According to Survation and Electoral Calculus, less than 3% separate the two.
Martin Baxter, founder and CEO of Electoral Calculus said: “The polls appear to be tightening away from Labour a bit on a national level which would translate into a few more seats, perhaps 10-30.
“The Conservatives will be acutely aware that they want to stay ahead of the Liberal Democrats to become the party of opposition.
“In the future, the official opposition gets about £1m of public money to be in opposition and gets to ask six questions at PMQs rather than the two questions for the other parties.”
EC has conducted a survey in recent time which suggests 60% of Green Party voters and almost half of Lib Dem voters are prepared to vote tactically to prevent a Conservative candidate being elected.
Such was the demand for Mr Baxter’s prediction and analysis site that it crashed temporarily today (July 3).
Under current predictions, Mr Baxter said of the 30m votes expected to be cast, 12m will go to Labour, 6m to the Conservatives, 5m to Reform UK and 3.6m to the Lib Dems.
Polling stations open at 7am and close at 10pm.
PREDICTED RESULTS - Source: YouGov
Ashford (CON): LABOUR GAIN
Canterbury (LAB): LABOUR HOLD
Chatham & Aylesford (CON): LABOUR GAIN
Dartford (CON): LABOUR GAIN
Dover and Deal (CON): LABOUR GAIN
Faversham & Mid Kent (CON): LABOUR GAIN
Folkestone & Hythe (CON): LABOUR GAIN
Gillingham & Rainham (CON): LABOUR GAIN
Gravesham (CON): LABOUR GAIN
Herne Bay & Sandwich (CON): CON HOLD
Maidstone & Malling (CON): CON HOLD
Rochester & Strood (CON): LABOUR GAIN
Sittingbourne & Sheppey (CON): LABOUR GAIN
Sevenoaks (CON): CON HOLD
Thanet East (CON): LABOUR GAIN
Tonbridge (CON): CON HOLD
Tunbridge Wells (CON): LIB DEM GAIN
Weald of Kent (NEW SEAT): CON GAIN
